Shove Math, 3bp facing cbet
Posted by sted9000
Posted by
sted9000
posted in
Mid Stakes
Shove Math, 3bp facing cbet
BN: $200 (Hero)
SB: $210
BB: $173.03
UTG: $234.32
HJ: $143.13
CO: $211.60
SB: $210
BB: $173.03
UTG: $234.32
HJ: $143.13
CO: $211.60
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
T
A
5
K
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $4.40, SB folds, BB raises to $14.20, Hero calls $9.80
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $4.40, SB folds, BB raises to $14.20, Hero calls $9.80
Flop
($31.40)
J
K
5
(2 Players)
BB bets $22,
Hero raises to $94.08,
BB raises to $158.83, and is all in,
Hero calls $64.75
Turn
($371.06)
J
K
5
3
(2 Players)
River
($371.06)
J
K
5
3
T
(2 Players)
Final Pot
BB has
K
J
6
K
BB
wins $344.26
Villain 3b Range Pre: 9% (assumed) = 7.06% Optimized
Assuming 100% Cbet
And continuing range of Villain of AA, KK, JJ, QT, ss, KJ, K5, J5, 55, K
3b - Continuing Range = 2.21%
So Fold Equity = 2.21/7.06 = 31.3%
Equity when Called vs (AA$nt:xxy, KK$ds, (KK$R$R)$ss, 6543+$ds, 8654+$ds, 8754+$ds, 8764+$ds, 7654+$ss, T986+:xxy, T976+:xxy, T876+:xxy, (Ax$R$R$R, Ax$R$R$M, Ax876+):xxy$nt, 10%$ds):(AA, KK, JJ, QT, ss, KJ, K5, J5, 55, K) = around 58% WOW
Profit/Loss of Strat = .313(51.40)(this is equity from him folding) + .58(346) (346 is total pot size) - (158) (158 is my remaining stack after his cbet) = $59
No-Brain-er Shove! OR Bad Math?
Thanks
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