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Should I Bluff Catch

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Should I Bluff Catch

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (5 Players) UTG: $25.00
CO: $45.60
BN: $34.65 (Hero)
SB: $32.47
BB: $6.65
#hands=30 VPIP=43 PFR=26 0% 3bet
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with J K 9 Q
UTG folds, CO raises to $1.00, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB folds
Flop ($2.75) 9 5 Q
SB bets $2.26, CO calls $2.26, Hero calls $2.26
Turn ($9.53) 9 5 Q K
SB bets $5.64, CO folds, Hero calls $5.64
River ($20.81) 9 5 Q K 2
SB bets $10.28, Hero

9 Comments

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Ephedrine10 8 years, 11 months ago

I d 3 bet this ip more often than not. As played i probably look him up w this hand: his sizings rep nothing (maybe like KK makes sense) and u have top 3 so u block made hand type holdings. U also block only one spade-more likely hes on a fd. And u have a J blocker. So yeah: call river

SeacombePLO 8 years, 11 months ago

Thinking about what he can have that beats you:
1) JT - I don't think he's donking multiway pre with a naked JT. He can have a flush draw too which makes more sense, but you block a jack so I don't think this is too likely. I also think JT has to bet much bigger on the turn unless it has at least a flush draw to go along with it. The hands that have these sort of combos (AJTx with a nut suit) a lot of are easy 3bets pre so it becomes even less likely.
2) Set - 55 makes sense from a more aggressive player, he almost never has 22, and you block every other set so combo is reduced a lot.

What do you beat?
1) Worse two pair - possible if he's aggressive, can be trying to protect from a flush draw.
2) Missed nfd which is turning into a bluff - for me I think this is a big part of his range. Hands like pair+nfd would play this the same way. Nut flush draws with not much else going for it are also a big part of his blind defending range multiway.
3) Aces - Some very weak aces like AA83rb could be played like this. Unlikely, but we've seen that villain doesn't 3bet a whole lot so more possible from this.
4) Flopped wrap - 876x might choose to semibluff donk the flop to get rid of weak flush draws, and then turn its hand into a bluff when the way you played it can be interpreted as nfd.

We have to be good 25% here roughly (cheers Eph) for this call to be profitable. In my opinion, we have to call here. Just far too many combinations of things he can have on the flop which completely whiff.

(I'm half asleep so if any of what I wrote is wrong let me know so I can edit, cheers)

tl;dr - call.

Ephedrine10 8 years, 11 months ago

This is a nice analysis but he bet 1/2 pot on the river that means U HAVE TO BE RIGHT 25% OF THE TIME AND NOT 33% . I hope u just misread it though. :)

DirtyD 8 years, 11 months ago

Opponent's line and sizing doesn't make much sense, it's tough to put him on a hand or a thought process. If we are beat I think it's more likely by a set than a straight with this line and sizing, but we block sets.

Overall we have a pretty strong hand and we're getting a good price. Villain's line doesn't make much sense and a flush draw did miss. I'm not incredibly confident but I would probably call and see what he has.

Disharmonist 8 years, 11 months ago

It think you are beat. You block many valuecombos, but the Qs also blocks a lot of bluff combos. However, you only need to be good 25% of the time.

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