scary board in 4bet pot
Posted by Suniram
Posted by
Suniram
posted in
Low Stakes
scary board in 4bet pot
BB: $32.50
UTG: $114.41
HJ: $50
CO: $72.08 (Hero)
BN: $50
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN calls $1.50, SB raises to $6.50, BB folds, Hero raises to $21.50, BN folds, SB calls $15
Villain is very tight. 15/13 and 3betting 6,7% over only 96 hands. For squeezing OOP here his range is very tight I'd say. good AA, premium KK and high rundowns.
Flop: We can discount AA from his range since just called my 4bet pre. Since he will fold quite a bit or even all KK vs the 4bet (he shouldn't expect me to 4bet more than AA here pre) so he is suuuuper rundown heavy and therefore smashes this board.
How do we proceed here? Can I b/f small here? The only problem I have with it is that folding vs NFD (+gutter) or wraps would be terrible. On the other hand shoving or bet/calling here vs such a nit seems simply dumb.
I could check back because I don't expect him to get too bluffy vs it but I don't want to give freecards to FDs and SDs.
I'm really lost here. Help!
Also, how do we play this spot vs a villain with a wider squeezing- and then floprange?
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we can make a simulation using propokertools with the
PQL Runner :
select count(minFlopHandCategory(PLAYER_2,FLOPTRIPS))
/* How often PLAYER_2 flop hand category at least trips */ as COUNT1 from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic', board='qcqh8h',PLAYER_1='AsAc6hKc',PLAYER_2='6%:[9+][9+][9+]!RR'
Results:
COUNT1 = (42.75%)
Giving to you opponent an range Top 6% with 3 cards >9
and no pair constaint he have a trips here in near to 43% of the time.
He could also have a FD very often
select count(fourFlush(Villain,flop)) /* How often
PLAYER_2 have a four flush on the flop */ as COUNT1 from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic', board='qcqh8h',Hero='AsAc6hKc',Villain='6%:[9+][9+][9+]!RR'
Results:
COUNT1 = (55.22%)
Running « standards »
equity simulation :
Board - qcqh8h
PLAYER_1 AsAc6hKc = 43,18%
PLAYER_2 6%:[9+][9+][9+]!RR = 56,82%
Talking about bet small to fold vsa raise it’s on my opinion a good option if you do the same with quite of your
range here.
Trips/full/OP & NFD/…/air
cbetting small a large part of our range give us wide possibilities the only point who makes it uncertain here is the SPR.
why giving to an opponent pretty good odds with a small SPR
it could be ok if and only if we do this with our entire range and then will be balanced and non face up on a stab
going on an exploitive thinking, if villain is really fit or fold and "never" moves regarding our sizings bet, c-betting small to give up is i think a really good option with air/nuts hands !
Wow, great post! Thanks.
So playing bet small/ fold vs very nitty players seems to have a lot of merit, while vs players who can get out of line it's not as good.
If we decide to go broke, do we prefer shoving or betting smaller and calling a shove? By betting like $15-$20 we might get him to shove some FDs or wraps hoping to fold out our AA. If we shove he can play perfectly and just calc his EQ vs AA** and call/ fold accordingly.
thanks
betting small is a pretty good option regardless of the opponent.
i explain with an example using pokerjuice to modify your hand :
we have on your spot AAQ 6 instead of AAK6.
if your opponent is interrested by the flop he goes all in no matter of your hand/range.
then betting full pot or small realize the same thing !
now if we have an weaker hand as in the reality of the hand and a passive/weaker vilain in front of us he won't raise us a lot looking his hand straight forward.
you can with bet small bluff with a great risk/reward ratio and also induce moves versus toughs players.
the concern of this sizings is to be aware of the profil and tendancies of our opponents but we won't be exploitable if we keep a good balancing air/nuts or dominating hands regarding opponent's ranges.
Spr is under 1 right? Wo doin thr math, im almost certain that shoving is profitable. Now im not saying shoving is the best play vs a guy like this. On a paired, disconn rb board vs some1 like this i am def for bet folding even w spr under 1. But he doesnt need many draws in his shoving range for a bet fold to be the worst line. So we know hes a nit, but some1 that 3bets 6% probably isnt scared money so i dont think we can assume he will only x-jam trips just bc his range is premium or bc his vpip is 15. Finally, 96 hands in omaha is nothing, we cant rule out what hes capable of just based on stats. I dunno if he qualifies aa a nit even, He just looks like some1 who waits for nutty ot premium hands, and when he gets them he pumps a lot of money in. In these situations, where jamming is def profitable, id rather take a line that is potentially suboptimal but def profitable and risk making a small mistake vs parts of his range rather than risk making a huge mistake with my entire range (stole this from zenfish)
Im on my phone so dont have pj in front of me. I can do some math later to see if bf small could be best. What i can say now is that Since our range is AA only, bet-folding this is def exploitable. Adding only AA+nfd wont help much as there are much fewer combos of that than other rando AA. And when we have AA+nfd, that removes a big part of his non trip potential shoving range so it wont help the protection of our bet fold range much
shoving is fine, betting small and calling a shove is fine. folding on the flop after putting money into the pot on the flop seems bad.
I prefer the shove because when I bet small I allow villain to realize all of his equity with draws that might fold to a shove. If I'm not folding when I bet, and I think villains flop raising range is going to be Qx and draws I'd just as soon fold out any draws that I can considering villain will probably be getting the right price to call it off if he/she knew my holding.
hi guys
as i said on the first post, bet/fold with a small size is only versus some players who "never bluffs" and i said i'm not sure with that SPR is it the best play.
we are in bad shape only versus a narrow part of hands but using ptools we can see with his range (if we assume is it correct and only hero can says) we are not crushing our opponent.
but yes again, with this SPR (1) shoving is definitly correct at least
On this kind of situations (SPR under 1) i shove every time, even against a nit like this player. Of course betting small to call a shove has it's, but i think that is callling range here will be the same as if we would bet small to call a shove, since he knows that after our flop bet he will always get called.
OP said SB should 3b/fold all KK, which is often true in theory but rarely happens in practice. People don't 3b/fold KK often enough, even when they should. And if he has KK, I doubt he will x/f on this flop. Now throw in some draws, and we have an easy shove with SPR < 1 against his range.
Betting small/calling off is fine too, but as themightyjim pointed out I think we are just giving him an extra option by doing so, which can't be too good for our EV (having more option = higher EV for him). Against his range we aren't bet/folding, so just jamming and giving him a chance to fold some draws seems the way to go.
Wowzers!!
Awesome post.
Not checking or folding with that spr...
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