Riverplan with set vs recreational

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Riverplan with set vs recreational

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $55.22
SB: $112.33 (Hero)
BB: $48.25
UTG: $148.67
MP: $54.86
CO: $50.96
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is SB with J A 2 J
UTG raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BN calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.25, BB calls $1.00
Flop ($6.00) 5 A 2
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $2.50, BN folds, Hero calls $2.50, BB folds
Turn ($11.00) 5 A 2 J
Hero checks, UTG bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50
River ($32.00) 5 A 2 J T
Hero

We are playing against a 68/32/0 Villain with an AFq of 41 over 25 hands, also given it's a sunday and I never seen him before makes it very likely that he is a recreational of some sort.

In this hand I want to go away from a balanced perspective and rather see how we can extract the most money from his weak valuerange (2pairs) and lose the least amount against his strong valuerange (AA and KQ/43).

I am not quite sure if we want to c/c this river against even a 1/2 pot bet here as I don't think villain is betting worse or has many bluffs taking this line (although I obviously might be wrong), but I believe he is gonna valuebet every better hand than ours and check back everything worse. Since the FD busted I'm not quite sure if he is folding a 2pair hand if we lead for a smallish sizing, so I wonder if we want to be blockbetting this river on that card.

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