Rivered flush but opponent pots
Posted by Shutoutfan
Posted by
Shutoutfan
posted in
Low Stakes
Rivered flush but opponent pots
SB: 23.42
BB: 3.90
CO: 23.17 (Hero)
BN: 15.34
BB: 3.90
CO: 23.17 (Hero)
BN: 15.34
Preflop
(0.15)
(4 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
J
Q
9
Hero raises to 0.30, BN folds, SB calls 0.25, BB calls 0.20
Hero raises to 0.30, BN folds, SB calls 0.25, BB calls 0.20
Flop
(0.90)
9
K
4
(3 Players)
SB bets 0.86,
BB folds,
Hero calls 0.86
Turn
(2.62)
A
(2 Players)
SB bets 2.50,
Hero calls 2.50
River
(7.62)
4
(2 Players)
SB bets 7.28
Villain is a 63/33/11.5 aggf: 1.5, donkbet 14%(44)
My hand looks pretty but I never saw him donkpotting it so far. Should I raise the turn? Is the river a nobrainer call with my hand? With his stats and from what I saw earlier he never ever has a KKxx or AAxx hand here. He goes broke with most KKxx hands preflop. I also block a set of 9's. Set of 4's seems likely until the river makes it a little bit more unlikely.
Just run my hand in equilab vs 44xx and 99xx and in both cases I have 59% on the turn. So is raise there the right option?
Loading 6 Comments...
Mmmm I'm not sure on the river, but why don't you raise the flop with top two?
I would definitely raise Flop! You have top two a gutter and good BDFD so its and easy raise for value. I wouldnt actually raise the turn because this card could have easily made him 2 better pairs. River gets interesting imo if he bets smaller its an easy call but when he almost pots it...
You block the 2nd nut flush as well but you also do block 2 cards that could make a boat so i think i would go ahead and call. Especially at these limits ppl often show up with a complete random hand this makes me lead towards calling. Nice to know would be how many hands you have on him . aggf of 1.5 is not very high!
Vs 99 you have 31% and vs 44 you have 36% equity on the turn.
I'm not sure raising the flop is a must at this stack depth - it's not like we wanna get 25x pot in w/ top 2 + gutter. Equally, we can easily ensure action on every street given our position. Flatting is therefore fine unless you have a read imo (also gives you strong hands on blanks which is nice).
Turn looks standard and river I would probably sigh-call. Just really hard for villain to have a boat here given our blockers and the preflop action. That said, I can easily believe this is an atrocious call.
I call river and take notes. 99 is the hand that makes most sense, along with some K4 that he somewhat overplayed on turn. But that aside we have 2 blockers for sets and we are sitting on the top of our range, since we can't have many boats either (we would have fastplayed most of them).
Flop and turn seem fine, I don't think you achieve much by raising flop because a) better hands are never folding, and b) his donking range in 3-way pot should be quite strong and thus will have few(er) worse hands.
Do you have any postflop reads? If he's spazzy/bluffy -- in fact, if he's capable of taking this line as a bluff at all -- you're probably good very often, because there are very few value hands that make sense, and effectively infinite combos of possible bluffs. But for many villains, pot, pot, pot = nuts every time. Just depends on which sort this guy is.
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