River spot vs Rec 3/6 HU
Posted by Goodbluff
Posted by Goodbluff posted in Mid Stakes
River spot vs Rec 3/6 HU
SB: 782.80
SB raises to 18, Hero calls 12
Villain is a recreational player and this hand is currently hand 196
His stats are, SB 87% open, BB 91% total call of 72% 3B 26%
FLOP CB 39% 36 samples
NOTES
Didn't value jam river in such standard spot
Bluff flop NO EV went all 3 streets awful bluff
Not turned hands into bluff on river in solid spot's with no show down value.
On turn, i assume he is value raising either a made hand or a big draw + pair or open ender type hand, given his no CB on flop i would say he is weighted more towards a made hand KQ,Q789.. but i duno? i am not sure how often he has sets here with not CB'ing but it has to be a small % imo around 10%? my main reason also for putting him on a made hand is i think fish are more likely to just call with draws but thats my NL theory unsure about PLO? would like others thoughts on Villains range here.
Turn i make it just under pot which i feel is a mistake, i don't see any reason to not pot as i cant think of hands hands that will call my current turn raise and not a pot and obv we dont have to worry about balance vs this player, my reason for not potting was due to how strong my hand was and at the time i was worried i might get folds with full pot?
River is where im really unsure what to do. im not going to give any comments here as i would like fresh idea's from other players + im very unsure optimal line myself!
Thanks
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