River OOP play post C/R Turn - What to Do?
Posted by NJpoker23
Posted by
NJpoker23
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Mid Stakes
River OOP play post C/R Turn - What to Do?
Hi All,
Came across this hand while at a 1/2 table the other day - not sure what to do w/ river...obv Shove, Bet, Check is available but what is best route and why.
Final Villain - Weaker player, wins money at 1/2 but obviously not well round. Will splash around and I found later on he bluff IP on river scare cards. I am also a aggro player in my opponents eyes.
See Hand History below, and please let me know best route to take:
888 Poker - $2 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
SB: $427.80 (VPIP: 54.23, PFR: 37.30, 3Bet Preflop: 18.66, Hands: 1,336)
Hero (BB): $437.05
UTG: $97.47 (VPIP: 35.68, PFR: 1.51, 3Bet Preflop: 1.12, Hands: 204)
CO: $200.00 (VPIP: 29.95, PFR: 19.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.27, Hands: 1,439)
BTN: $1,190.63 (VPIP: 41.24, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 6.14, Hands: 3,645)
SB posts SB $1.00, Hero posts BB $2.00
Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has 8d Th 8c Ts
fold, fold, BTN raises to $7.00, fold, Hero calls $5.00
Flop : ($15.00, 2 players) 6d Tc Jd
Hero checks, BTN bets $11.25, Hero calls $11.25
Turn : ($37.50, 2 players) 4s
Hero checks, BTN bets $37.50, Hero raises to $145.00, BTN calls $107.50
River : ($327.50, 2 players) Kc
I am OOP on river - first to act
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pot is 330, eff. stacksize is 272, i always struggle with these kind of spots, therefore rly also looking for comments.
as i'm a passive fish ^^ i tend 2 c/c against aggro opps and c/f the rest
Shoving is not an option, even if he calls light w 2 pairs , you will run into a str8 around 25% to 32% depending on how you design his turn calling range.
I used this range for turn calling :
NFD, 3NFD> + SD, any FD w OE or Wrap and 2 pairs w a J, Naked WR and finally i add (66,44) 30% of the time.
So when you combine your overall eq vs his calling range, this results in around 30% equity when you bet, so not enough to value.
So all is left is XC or XF.
If he's the type to bluff any busted draws, then you would have to call cause according to my sim, Villain will have a hand weaker than TP 29% of the time and weaker than Jx 24.69% of the time. ( His VBs are mainly str8 for 30.54% and we reach 32.7% if we add some KK to his value range)
However, i think many people shy away from bluffing river if they hold 2 diamonds for blocker effects, so it all depends how you perceive him to play that part of his range.
Roughly he has 30% of value for 30% of potential bluffs, so if you think he bluffs those diamonds more than half the time, you have a call. If he bluffs way less than 50% w those combos ( less than 45% to be more precise given the pot odds ) , then you have a fold which i believe would be the case against most opponents.
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