River IP set, on lockdown Bord
Posted by JimmyGlass
Posted by
JimmyGlass
posted in
Low Stakes
River IP set, on lockdown Bord
UTG: $76.67
HJ: $17.83
CO: $25 (Hero)
BN: $21.82
SB: $33.89
BB: $19.09
HJ: $17.83
CO: $25 (Hero)
BN: $21.82
SB: $33.89
BB: $19.09
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
A
T
K
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BN folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BN folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds
Flop
($1.95)
A
9
K
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $1.50,
SB calls $1.50
Turn
($4.95)
A
9
K
2
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $3.85,
SB calls $3.85
River
($12.65)
A
9
K
2
Q
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $7
sb 57\30\20\ 135hands wtsd 35
passive postflop
Loading 11 Comments...
Looks fine, agree with slightly bigger bets. Especially the flop bet makes a fairly decent difference since it impacts all the remaining bets in the hand.
I think it's a bit questionable how much value you have on the river though. He either has a missed FD and will not put in any more money either way -- or he had QJTx and is the passive type that cannot put money in unless someone else does it first (so he might be check raising). The remaining option is he has a hand like A9 or A2 (I guess if he has AA he puts in a raise somewhere, but you never really know with these players). I think it's possible you get calls from those hands sometimes, but it's far from certain.
Essentially you're balancing the times you get calls from two pair against the times that he slow played a straight or top set. I think it's slightly more likely that he calls with two pair, but I don't think you should expect the river bet to be super profitable. If he has any sort of river c/r bluff range, then I think you can check it back. But that doesn't really happen at 25PLO, so just bet it :)
^ This is basically what I was thinking, river imo is much closer than simple vbet with impunity.
Anyways, If he does c/r river, we can assume broadway is out 100% and make a hero fold right, then write a note?
Yes, although I wouldn't consider such a fold particularly "hero". It's just a clear fold. I would basically be the same if he led (large) into us on the river. That's also usually a fold given no specific reads.
Y'all are so nitty, this is an easy value-bet at these stakes. So often villain will just be getting to showdown w/ some made hand (A9, 99, AQJ etc.) that not betting will spew value (he's never folding those when the flush draw misses unless you bet huge). Yes, sometimes you'll get check/raised and sometimes he'll have missed a flush draw and fold, but w/e, we don't value-bet here 'cas we think we win 100%, we value-bet 'cas we think we are ahead of his calling range.
Tom, I'd like to see a calculation that shows that there is significant value here. There might be a little bit of value (meaning we should really bet small on the river) but a bet could also as easily be break even or slightly losing. It's not quite as easy as thinking you have the best hand and blindly betting, I'm sure you must know this.
On top of that, I doubt he'll be check/shoving much - people don't bluff like that and I don't expect to see JT nearly as often here as aces up/sets given a) a lot of JT hands will have folded earlier (if he has a lot of JT hands it's because he's so loose that he has a lot of calling junk so that's fine) and b) he will lead the nuts some percentage of the time.
Now, given I think he calls all aces up, of which he has plenty w/ two aces live having called flop and turn, that makes this bet simple enough for me. I really do believe that not going for value in spots like this is what separates people who beat these games comfortably from the small winners and break even players. In fact, I'm planning to do a video or two in the near future on spots where I think people should be going for value 'cas it's just so huge.
Note: Even if there is only a small amount of value in a bet (which I don't believe), that doesn't necessarily mean we're best betting small. The size of our bet here should depend entirely on what we expect villain to call w/ his non-nut hands. If we think he'll call $10 w/ A9, we should be betting $10.
This is a good valuebetting spot vs a loose-passive who likes to see showdowns. The question is how much. We're going for value from mainly two pair, which in his mind probably looks like a pretty good hand. Around 1/2 pot should do it.
Note-taking when he calls is mandatory. Lots of extra value to be had if you know he can bluffcatch big bets in these situations.
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