H. Analaysis -Flopped set + Q blocker vs. Possible flush / straight.

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H. Analaysis -Flopped set + Q blocker vs. Possible flush / straight.

http://weaktight.com/7109005

Hey guys; please help me break down this hand, I just want to see if my reasoning here is semi-optimal or not. The villain's stats are as follows:

VP: 50 / PR: 27 / 3B 30 / CB 56 TB 29 / Af 1

That being said what kinds of hands do you put him on here and do you think the river call is good?

5 Comments

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spassewr 10 years, 4 months ago

Fold pre. Jam flop vs raise after youve made a weak bet. If he really is nitty enough for you to play the flop cautiously then we gotta make our decision ott as youre both committed.

The reason we call the flop raise would only make sense if a) he will raise fold QT/33 or b) his range is so strong and heavy in QQ/wrap+fd that we wont make any money jamming flop and therefore need to see a safe turn before we gii. If thats really the case we need to fold this turn c) his flop raising range has a ton of weak hands that will raise fold so we will make more money by trapping. If thats the case then we jam this turn as we are not folding any rivers really.

As played ott without any further reads we need about 40% eq vs his range so i doubt we can fold so id jam turn hoping hes got 33/QT/nfd and doesnt know what to do. As played otr its an iffy spot caused by an unusual line by you but since 33 is porb still in his range, QT might be+ his range could include bluffs (draws that now have 1p) that u induced a raise from i doubt we can fold for this price even tho the OEs got there.

deadgambino 10 years, 4 months ago

Yea; I was praying that he didn't have a wrap. Just reading his stats though my gut told me otherwise. Turns out he was barreling with a gut shot and a nuts flush draw. Even then though I still have 61% EV on the flop and 72% on the turn. Also, why would I fold pre? I made a nice size pot with this hand.

http://weaktight.com/7109040

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