Quick question, do we just fold here?

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Posted by posted in High Stakes

Quick question, do we just fold here?

This is pretty much your standard $5/10 game on Partypoker. I don't play too much here but it seems like UTG is a bit spewy based on a recent hand we played, however I think BB is quite a solid reg. There hasn't really been any crazy action going on.

On to the hand;

Seat 1: Ca11MeMaybe ( $1,000 USD )
Seat 3: QuickAsTheKick ( $2,234.25 USD )
Seat 6: Reborn89 ( $1,551 USD )
Seat 2: S-klasse ( $1,000 USD )
Seat 5: HERO ( $2,751.50 USD )
Seat 4: privko ( $1,000 USD )
S-klasse posts small blind [$5 USD].
QuickAsTheKick posts big blind [$10 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Kh 3d Kd Qh ]
privko raises [$35 USD]
HERO raises [$120 USD]
Reborn89 folds
Ca11MeMaybe folds
S-klasse folds
QuickAsTheKick raises [$390 USD]
privko folds
HERO calls [$280 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5d, Ad, Tc ]
QuickAsTheKick bets [$560 USD]


I think villian shows up with AAxx almost all of the time here, and should he have no diamonds and should he not have a T or a 5 in his hand we have roughly 37.5% equity on the flop. Against something like AKQT we have even worse equity. In order to get it in on the flop we need around 40.5% if I've done my math right, so do we just fold here? Am I too strict with villians range? Could you make an argument for just calling the flop?

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ZenFish 12 years, 2 months ago
We have a nutty draw, position, and good visibility. We can call and play well on turrn/river, yes? If he barrels too much we have implied odds. If he checks too much we're getting free cards. Hard to estimate the EV of a call, but we're getting a better price than the pot odds, one way or the other.

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