QT97+fd 3way, 3b pot

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QT97+fd 3way, 3b pot

http://weaktight.com/7100421

bb is a tough aggro LAG, 40/27 AF=2.8. very low squeeze though 2% total. cb oop 3b pot = 62%, cb 3w 3b pot = 58%(22). cb-fold oop 3/7.

sb is a 39/26, fold sb to steal = 69%, 3b here vs me about 6%.

so were obv not folding, and i dunno even know if its a big deal without great reads (like ppl bet-folding too often, or never bet-folding)....is it worth raising to get better hands / hands with good eq to fold, both by bb and sb or are we better off calling and using our position here?

how often do you think bb is bet-folding, how often does he need to bet-fold for you to prefer raising? is this a raise no matter what? can we fold if we call and it goes ai-ai?

16 Comments

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Ph33roX 10 years, 4 months ago

Interesting spot. SPR on the flop is a bit over 6, we're 3way in position against both players. The nice thing about calling here is that it is massively profitable regardless of what range assumptions we make for BB, where raising can be anything from massively profitable to marginally profitable. That's at least what my intuition is telling me.

Against AA/KK with a flushdraw you have 40% equity, against made hands QJ+ you have 45% and against dominating draws you can be crushed: you only have 28% vs AKTcc. I know those are some pretty strong hands and he's clearly cbetting wider but if he has dry AA/KK I don't think he's gonna bet/call into two players here, so by raising we get him to fold those hands. However, we have about 70%(!) equity against a range of (AA!cc,KK!cc) so it's not like he makes any error by folding them and we're certainly not profiting much compared to calling.

I do think that if we flat, SB raises and BB gets it in, we can get away from our hand, which is another reason I want to flat here. Yea it doesn't happen all that frequently, but if calling and raising are close, then this might make the difference for me. And just in general I always prefer to just call and play poker when I'm in position. SPR 6 is enough where two decent sized bets can go in on the turn and river, so there's decent room for maneuver.

I would definitely like to hear more opinions on this. I think more numbers can help us but for that we're gonna need PJ. Is the hand histories from that site supported by PJ?

themightyjim 10 years, 4 months ago

I think if we know that we have a protected turn range (ie we're flatting some strong hands and villain won't be able to just double barrel or shove on blank turns really light on us) then I like your plan. IE if I could play much much better than I actually do and really construct a great flop calling range and a turn stack off range that was balanced and made life tough on my opponent, then I see the value in flatting the flop to give us more information on SB's holding based on action.

But I don't think I am that good in game (or out of game) at constructing such protected ranges on dynamic boards in mway bloated pots. I think in those spots I fast play my strongest of hands, so these strong equity medium draws hands work well as semi-bluffs so that villain's can't safely b/f their whole range on the flop.

spassewr 10 years, 4 months ago

@pherox: even if villain doesnt make a mistake b-f his weaker hands/draws, if he has 30% eq he would still prefer to just get called rather than jammed on tho right?

themightyjim 10 years, 4 months ago

since your flush draw is non-nut and blank turn cards allow villain to play well it seems like a great spot to raise and try to fold out Khigh flush draws, bare NFD that may not have anything else to draw to, or wraps that take a lot of our equity against overpairs and two pair because they share or take away some of our outs.

I'm raising and it sucks when the SB comes along or reshoves, but that isn't going to happen that often. Calling just makes the turn easier for our opponents to play.

spassewr 10 years, 4 months ago

In-game i didnt think wed make much money shipping it, and that villain would have a decently strong c-betting range. we can also call any turn so allowing villain to bomb any brick isnt a big deal.

assuming he cbets naked AA+nfd blocker, and will barrel bluff flush cards with that tho, i doubt we can fold if the flush comes in (at least not to 1 bet), same goes for K. we also allow sb to realize his equity with better FDs and some KT so given that we dont have that much implied odds i started thinking that perhaps we should just jam flop with this many outs for the reasons jim stated.

msj219 10 years, 4 months ago

Can't see why you would do anything but call here, you still have a player left to act and the BB I would say has a strong range here fairly often cbetting that board into 2 players.

Call and re-evaluate turn, we really only have 3 clean outs.

I don't think you should be too concerned with SB just coming along with very marginal holdings like a KQTx or a naked K-hi flush draw unless he's a very bad player.

I mean would you call from the SB with a naked KTxx or Kxxx flush draw with this action to you? (Assuming you just called ofc).

spassewr 10 years, 4 months ago

no i wouldnt, but i think he will :) he is pretty draw-happy and he may be able to get away with it. hard to say if xcing Kfd or KT:(Q,J) is a losing play.

Zuzupet 10 years, 4 months ago

Hmm tricky spot, but first we need to calculate our EV when jaming over the BB cbet and compare it to calling and play a pot in position:

3 scenarios can happen when we jam:
1. We jam, SB calls BB calls:
2. We jam, SB calls, BB folds
3. We jam SB folds, BB folds

We are using the OP's assigned preflop ranges and OP's assigned postflop cbetting-range for BB:

SB:$fi30!$3b6o,AA
BB:$3b4o

Let's first find the EV(scenario 1):
We are assigning the SB's stack off range, which should be very strong and narrow as he is facing a cbet and a jam: QQ+,KQT:(Add). This range he will call our jam with only 2% of the time:

using the range distrubution module again on BB stack off range, we can see that BB is bet-folding 51% of the time:

EV(scenario 1) = (244 + 915.58) + (915.580.02) + (815.580.49) - 915.58
= (1159.58 + 18.31 + 399.63 - 915.58) * 0.17 = 112.53
We need to multiply with 0.17 as we have 17% EQ, when we all 3 players gii on the flop:

Zuzupet 10 years, 4 months ago

As some posters already pointed out, this should be a value jam, because this we very rarely gii 3w and even so we are +EV.

Conclusion:
I think it's best to jam OTF, because we have poor visiblity as calling allow SB and BB to slowplay some speculative hands and we allow them to win the pot by bluffing later as we cap our hand when calling.

Hope this is useful fwiw

spassewr 10 years, 4 months ago

I agree that its almost def +EV to jam, the question is....is it the best play? impossible to calc obv, just curious to see what ppl prefer.

ive been told we may be able to look forward to another classic Pherox PJ analysis to complement Zuzupets.

thx for putting in all that work Zuzu.

Zuzupet 10 years, 4 months ago

"assuming he cbets naked AA+nfd blocker, and will barrel bluff flush cards with that tho, i doubt we can fold if the flush comes in (at least not to 1 bet), same goes for K. we also allow sb to realize his equity with better FDs and some KT so given that we dont have that much implied odds i started thinking that perhaps we should just jam flop with this many outs for the reasons jim stated."

+1

Zuzupet 10 years, 4 months ago

"thx for putting in all that work Zuzu." emphasized text

You're welcome, was thinking of looking of the EQ on all turn cards like Pherox did in a similar post. But I think it's better to shove here, because were dealing with two villians likely if we call and this make the hand very hard to play even IP with a SPR that small.

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