Profitable checkraise? PLO10

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Profitable checkraise? PLO10

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $10.95
SB: $12.91
BB: $10.00
UTG: $7.06
MP: $5.11
CO: $10.00 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is CO with J Q K 7
UTG calls $0.10, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, BB raises to $1.50, UTG folds, Hero calls $1.05
Flop ($3.15) 2 8 T
BB bets $2.27, Hero raises to $8.50 and is all in, BB calls $6.23 and is all in

Opponent is a nitty regular who is 25/17/8 and is in general pretty tigt postflop. I thought that flops like this are an automatic cbet for most 3bet ranges but he might consider folding to this big of a size and i still have equity to hit so its just a semi bluff

6 Comments

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God_of_War 5 years, 11 months ago

Nobody is check-raising. Your flop-raise is spewy. Beside AAxx, AKKx that he will have pretty often, he won't fold that or enough other hands of his 3bet+cbet range, it will also contain stronger hands like some top-sets, top-2pairs, the 13-nutwrap and 17/11-wrap. All those hands have crushed your air-type hand which is just a gutshot+backdoorflushdraw (wtf?).

devwil 5 years, 11 months ago

Grunching.

This is too loose every step of the way.

You may be able to get away with raising this combo preflop if folded to, but facing an UTG limp I think you want to tighten up somewhat. I'm not 100% sure on this and someone can feel free to actually consult some computed resource on this, but this is my intuition.

When BB 3bets, I'm really not sure you're supposed to continue here. Calling here is probably the most defensible action in your line, though. Again, someone can consult some sort of chart if they really want to be sure.

Fold the flop. You missed and you don't block anything. Your equity is almost certainly minimal, and I can't come up with any argument for bluff raising. If the flop were, like, 754r or something, maybe you could argue that your range has more straights than villain's? But villain just has no reason to bet/fold here, to my mind.

So if they're not folding, you're not denying equity. And if you're not denying equity, the only other reason to bet or raise is to make the pot bigger, which you have no reason to do with, like... I don't know... 15% equity versus villain's range? Just guessing, but it's pretty miserable almost all of the time.

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