probability and game theory question

Posted by elendil

Posted by elendil posted in High Stakes

Posted 11 years, 3 months ago

probability and game theory question

scenario: playing vs a reg with no other info available. 100BB deep HU 3bet pot. you open, he 3bets, you defend, flop TT3r, he cbets.

Question #1: Without looking at your cards how often do you have a T?

Question #2: Without looking at your cards how often should you be raising here?

I'm basically trying to construct a GTO raising range here. According to my calculations we flop a T about 16% of the time. Is there an answer to how often we should be raising or is it just as often as our opponent lets us? From my experience people go a bit crazy in these spots both cbetting and raising.

2 Comments

Loading 2 Comments...

midori 11 years, 3 months ago

#1: This depends on your (or my) opening frequency and call 3b frequency, as well as (to a minor extent) his 3b frequency.

Given we don't have any info on him, I'll just assume I am opening 100% of my BTN and calling 80% vs 3bets, and I don't have AA (which I would 4bet). In this case, we get to flop with 163263 hands (=80%!AA) of which 28815 hands are Txxx. That's about 17.6% of the time.

#2: Again this depends on his range, as well as our raise sizing. This will be more complicated than #1, so I'll revisit this later on.

At any rate, that 16-17% doesn't dictate a whole lot as to how often we should be raising. It depends on how we construct our ranges. However, if we decide to raise all Tx for example, then we can raise more than 16-17%, because we can now mix in some bluff. Otherwise our raising range is exclusively for value, right :)