PLO Case Study #1 - AA in 4bet pot

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PLO Case Study #1 - AA in 4bet pot

Hey Guys,

I did some analysis with PPT/PQL on a hand I have played recently.  I thought I'd share it with you guys for feedback and suggestions.  

https://www.evernote.com/shard/s136/sh/7961d4f0-d73a-47fb-849d-0f9901a64eb9/2ca7da6ab8d776e0be042dc332e8ab98

Have fun reading, and please let me know what you think! :)

- midori

21 Comments

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JimmyGlass 10 years, 9 months ago

well done

few questions though: you making all the calculations like if it was spr=1, which it isn't its 1.3 - seems like a significant difference, isn't it? 2) what does 'P' after numbers means?  

midori 10 years, 9 months ago

Oh yeah, good point.  The SPR in this hand was bigger than 1.3 because stacks were deeper, but I assumed the case of SPR=1 for the sake of simplicity, which is closer to the usual ~100bb scenario.  I should have mentioned this in my OP, sorry about that :(  And P stands for the pot size on the flop before any betting was made.

At SPR=1.3, his stack-off equity is 38.5% instead of 33%, so there should be some differences.  Without doing any calc, a few things come to mind:

1) He can pot/fold with his air, and jam over our pot bet only with hands > 38.5% equity (as opposed to calling hands > 33% equity previously)

2) He can also play around with bet sizing, instead of just potting or checking back.  Betting 1/3-ish seems like an interesting option, but probably not on this board.

3) He should check back more hands on flop in general

I will repeat the calculations for SPR=1.3 and update it shortly.  

unbuwoha 10 years, 9 months ago

Thanks for the article.

I like the idea of equity forking. Can become very useful when we are in villain's shoes and hero misses to cbet. I think your plan of checking on this low board (that does not hit any range hard) to induce only works vs bad players at this very low SPR. Decent players will not misread your hand and intention here. Assuming someone decent who is 3betting $3b10i should know he will mainly get 4bet by a decent hero (you in this case) with AA and some good AKK. So you will rarely have less than a pair here. If 3bet/4bet ranges get wider, you want to push all you air here since you have decent fold equity.

That said, I like the idea of checking on boards that really hit the callers range, like QJT,JT9. It is not so risky for you to check, because villain will not check back here very often. The caller should know he is allowed to bluff a lot when his range is strong, so checking with low fold equity to keep villain's bluffs in seems like a good option.

There was an article at 2+2 magazine quite a while back (it is gone now) "Solving a Typical Pot-limit Omaha Shoving Scenario" by Daniel "bachfan" Hutchings. He investigated the EV of shoving after 4betting AA82ds on different boards at SPR=1.2. There are some boards (basically the very coordinated high card boards) where cbet shoving has negative EV. Plus on a board like KhQhJs it is quite easy to spot blank turn cards after villain checks back.

midori 10 years, 9 months ago

Thanks, man.  Glad you liked the article.

I think I vaguely remember that 2+2 magazine article, and I agree that on some flops (hopefully not too many) we can still x/f with our AA after 4betting, especially when SPR is higher than 1.  Also, as a preflop 4b caller, when I flop the nuts on boards like KQJhh I don't mind checking back IF I expect villain to shove on turn with what seems to be a naked AA, for the very reasons you mentioned.  

midori 10 years, 9 months ago

I just revised and updated the article!  I have explored the SPR=1.3 case, and explained a bit more about all these numbers from different strategies.  Once again, thanks for your comment JimmyGlass.

Enjoy it, and please let me know if you spot any mistake.  I woke up at 8AM today which is just ridiculous for me, so I'm not so sure if my brain was working alright..

midori 10 years, 9 months ago

Added some more thoughts to it: namely, what if villain flopped very strong hands on the flop?  Should he still check those back?  You will find the answer in the "Epilogue" section of my post. :)

midori 10 years, 2 months ago

Thanks for your kind words, guys.

I wrote this article a while ago, but please let me know if you have any questions or suggestions. :)

Joey Joe Joe Jr 10 years, 2 months ago

Nice article to learn how to analyze some spots myself.

Got a small question about the PQL syntax:

You used:

select avg(HvPerceivedRangeEquity(p1,flop,'AA')) from game='omahahi',
p1='9%6h!AA', board='7d5d3c' where
HvPerceivedRangeEquity(p1,flop,'AA') > 0.33

The "HvPerceivedRangeEquity" was confusing me, didn't get what the difference was with HvREquity... And I guess there isn't really one for PLO, since we can rewrite the previous PQL sentences to this:

select avg(HvREquity(p1,flop))
from game='omahahi', p1='9%6h!AA', p2="AA", board='7d5d3c'
where HvREquity(p1,flop) > 0.33

Is this correct? Or is there a bigger reason to use HvPerceivedRangeEquity instead of HvREquity?

midori 10 years, 2 months ago

Hi friedm,

Thanks for your words. As for the difference between those two, I think the former (one with "Perceived") is for a HU scenario, whereas the latter can be used for MW spots as well. The latter can also be used for stud games, and I'm not sure if the former can.

In this specific scenario, there is no good reason why we should not be using HvREquity, so I agree with you. :) I am not too keen on this distinction though, so please take this with a grain of salt.

-- midori

Lefthook 10 years, 2 months ago

Good Work Midori,

It was very helpful and intesting read. I was curious about your syntax for acheiving the avg stack off equity on turn, assuming HvPRE <0.33 on the flop.

Here was my attempt:
select avg(HvPerceivedEquity(v,turn,'AA'))
from game='omahahi', v='9%6h!AA', board='7d5d3c'
where HvPerceivedRangeEquity(v,flop,'AA')<0.33
and HvPerceivedRangeEquity(v,turn,'AA')>0.33

which produced avg equity ~72%

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