PLO_ Is this some what a standard line on the flop in a 3bet pot
Posted by Jack Li
Posted by
Jack Li
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO_ Is this some what a standard line on the flop in a 3bet pot
UTG: $82.90
HJ: $29.89
CO: $50
BN: $60.85
SB: $50.25 (Hero)
BB: $54.64
HJ: $29.89
CO: $50
BN: $60.85
SB: $50.25 (Hero)
BB: $54.64
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
Q
8
T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $1.50, BN folds, Hero raises to $4.75, BB folds, CO raises to $14, Hero calls $10.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $1.50, BN folds, Hero raises to $4.75, BB folds, CO raises to $14, Hero calls $10.50
Flop
($31.50)
2
J
A
(2 Players)
Hero bets $31.50,
CO raises to $34.50,
Hero calls $3
Turn
($100.50)
9
(2 Players)
River
($100.50)
2
(2 Players)
Final Pot
CO
wins $97.50
Loading 7 Comments...
preflop is fine/good/std
On the flop I assume this to be a purely mathematical situation, if we can safely assume a very heavy aa** range for villain.
We need 34.5/100.5 equity to get it in breakeven, which is 34.3%
Assuming an AA** range, we have
aa** 67.46% 1,444,506 15,176
kcqcth8h 32.54% 692,818 15,176
So getting it in would be a very small mistake. If he can sometimes be wider than just aa**, then getting it is fine/breakeven
If we had two bdfds, we would have
aa** 65.22% 1,396,050 15,543
ksqsth8h 34.78% 740,907 15,543
So getting it in would be marginally profitable/breakeven compared to folding. Really goes to show the importance of bdfds in certain spots.
The question becomes, do we lead or check. Personally, I like checking vs. most opponents. If he has AA, it doesn't matter what we do, as the money is going in. We need to maximize EV against non AA hands.
So, is he shoving JT98 when checked to, or is he betting small and folding? If we can eek a small cbet out of him before he folds his occasional (slightly more likely with the A on flop) air, we should probably go for that, as an $8 cbet here is 16bbs in one hand. Very important to take these massive gains when we can.
It's also interesting to consider calling against an $8 cbet, potentially to fold certain turns (board pairs, for example). It REALLY depends on your opponent, and can become kind of a headache if you're completely guessing.
this also relies heavily on villain's tendencies, but argument could be made against building a huge pot with worst position vs known AA. This is a very well connected hand, but i would consider smooth calling or even folding to 4 bet in sb.
Also I think that 'Even if you have correct equity, there are plenty of better spots at these stakes to get stacks in.' is somewhat of a fallacy. If we have correct equity, in that our ev of getting it in is greater than our ev of folding, we should always be getting it in, unless we are super worried about variance, in which case I would recommend playing lower stakes. Also another thing to consider, is if we are not affected mentally by losing a pot, and our opponent may play worse/become tilted after losing with AA here, then shoving is quite clearly the superior option than folding, even if the play is completely breakeven.
Completely agree with Phil also, that is something a lot of players don't think about in some spots.
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