PLO50z Naked AA on low board 140BB deep multi-way
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO50z Naked AA on low board 140BB deep multi-way
BN: $185.15
SB: $81.82
BB: $71.31 (Hero)
UTG: $7.02
HJ: $70.77
CO: $32.19
SB: $81.82
BB: $71.31 (Hero)
UTG: $7.02
HJ: $70.77
CO: $32.19
BTN is 17/10 over 492 hands, SB no reads
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
A
T
A
UTG folds, HJ raises to $1.50, CO folds, BN calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, Hero raises to $7.50, HJ folds, BN calls $6, SB calls $6
UTG folds, HJ raises to $1.50, CO folds, BN calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, Hero raises to $7.50, HJ folds, BN calls $6, SB calls $6
Flop
($24.50)
4
2
7
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $16,
BN raises to $70.92,
SB folds
Is this a standard bet/fold situation where I have no backdoor draws but need to bet my hand for protection? How's my bet sizing?
I'm really not too sure how to play AAxx hands on these low boards in general, especially when I get raised. See the other hand I posted too.
I'm really not too sure how to play AAxx hands on these low boards in general, especially when I get raised. See the other hand I posted too.
Loading 36 Comments...
Against 2 opponents, and one behind you, i dont think the 16$ is a good idea,.. With no backdoors you have a very weak hand, so by betting you're bloating the pot and at no stage are you going to want to get alot in..
Id suggest checking these low boards....its just not a great spot to be in, one of those keep the pot small and if you cant, throw it away....
There are a few hands now that have you beat (alot of low run down type hands), but the worst part is the turn, most of the time, by the turn they one of the villains have a hand that doesnt want to fold (pair and flush, 2pair and flush pair and run down etc) .. And you mostly have a hand that cant win without them folding :), definitely save the 32bb's next time man..
I would definitely cbet this flop given that this board doesn't hit their ranges often enough. so cbet for protection/value bet and fold to a raise.
I think you're right in that if there is a raised fold, and I don't think you're getting raised all that often, but how many good turn cards are there? you really have two cards that are good (the remaining AA's)So
Play the turn out, any 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 and there's a straight out there, 3/4 times there's a second suit so even if that's 50% time someone picks up a flush draw....then there's the 9-Q definitely within someones set mining range...And when we do hit our A there also a baby straight...
So by betting how often do you think both fold? even if you had position and both had checked? most of the time players want to see the turn and see how they're doing then....by betting even if you only get one caller, you would essentially have to bluff to win, so you bloat a pot where you most likely can only win by them folding....
Hero bets $16, BTN folds, SB calls, 56.5$ in the pot,
Pick any card? Sb (58$ left) Checks, Hero ? (48$), whats the plan?
IfI'm wrong and i could be, can someone tell me, i think id save or make a heaps extra...Cant get better unless i know where i'm going wrong :)
I agree that they are not many "good" cards for us. If Btn is competent, I would c/c when btn bets and sb folds. c/f seems too weak on this dry flop.
What would you suggest instead of b/f?
Bet call it off, you are still EV + on fast calc against 22,77,44,35,567,6789,789T,KK47, don't have time to do whole calculation in peace, but seems, bet + get it in
Given that btn has tight stats, gii otf is total spew.. obviously the range you assigned to Btn is extremely wide.
17/10 doesn't mean he plays 17/10 on the btn. Most likely, his btn stats will be looser.
well, flop shouldn't hit his range as much as well given tight stats, and i can't assign him range of sets only on as drawy board, rundowns are decent part od his range, so i think he has necessary equity to get it in, specially after he betted
My biggest hurdle right now as a transitioning NLHE player is figuring out my equity in a spot like this. I really need to learn OO syntax...
Well i wanted to do u ev but im not home so cant before monday, syntax is not so complicatwd u can chk toms vid on ppt syntax
Regarding thid hand, u can count in oo exactly how many sets and draws there is in his range and do exact ev
Firstly this is a 3way pot, not HU, which seems huge in that although it wont hit one range often, it will hit one of the two ranges often enough...that we still have to bluff to win i think? so if we have to bet (i think betting is wrong above but) if he raises, he's either turning his QQxx hand into a bluff, or we're are behind....This is one of those, Holdem we're liking it, but in PLO not so much... easy fold the way it was played...you have nothing more than a bluff catcher with no redraws...
@aleksandra Back to what i said up top, we're not getting raised often, so when we bet and bloat the pot on the flop, ow do we play turns? best case scenario, we get one caller, but if we bet and get two callers which is what will happen 3 times out of ten? (rough guess)
The lead isn't great, but i really don't like bloating the pot 3 way, you could check raise fold...or check/call, see how its played on turn, at least by checking you give it a chance to get checked through, and you lose very little flop fold equity...
@Bdon i think thats about it, how you do you feel about it now? lol confused more or less?
Thanks for taking the time to reply.
Re: checking, I'm worried that it will often get checked through. There are many turn cards I really don't want to see, since I have no backdoor draws and my hand can only get worse. I haven't run a sim on this but I'm guessing my equity might be highest on the flop here, so I should just "bet while I still have it" kind of thing...
Anyway, that's what my logic was in the hand, and it's very possible that it's flawed since I'm coming from NLHE.
C/R would be an interesting line that I never considered. I suppose it looks like both SB and myself are giving up and BTN might take a stab at it with his KK.
From a range perspective, checking probably suits me best here. Since many times I'll have AAxx with at least some backdoor potential, and a high quality DS rundown that somewhat connects with this board to balance it. If I'm betting a naked AAxx here then I'm probably betting too much of my range in this spot.
yeah i think you're hand is at it 'easiest' now, but i don't see a good way to play the turn and river, that isn't hope and luck... just such a bad flop for you're hand..
betting isn't the worst but it's not really for straight value, but could just bet/call or check raise, then bet turn...but in doing so you're mostly bluffing but in a defensive manner...sorta like a blocking bet...
http://hh.pokerjuice.com/report_3e78cc96-1746-4b9a-9de4-4ffc972940b4
EV of a call = -5.17
Can check assigned range and hand analysis in PJ report file in link above
Used a BTN stackoff range of 42+,53+:2+,865,653 as a start, or translated in OO ($FI20!$3B6I): ((42,72,74,22,44,77),(53,65):(2,33,4,55,66,7,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA,42,72,74,22,44,77),865,653)
Good job!
Your baseline calculation goes to show that a worst case type of stackoff range isn't actually so bad for us, with the dead money in the pot. Bet-folding this flop is not something I would do, once I bet AA.
I expect to pick up the pot a lot. BTN is very tight. SB is weighted towards not-too-great hands with lots of high cards, and he has checked. This board doesn't hit their ranges at all. I bet this to stack off once I get heads-up, not to bet-fold. The fold equity adds so much EV to this bet, and I'm fine with occasionally getting it in somewhat bad against either player.
Being able to find good folds is a useful skill, but if BTN can have some more loose stackoffs than the range given him here, folding could be a disaster. Note that with his tight ranges, he will only raise 6.53% of the time in the baseline simulation:
This means our EV is very sensitive to small variations in our assumptions. Adding a few more light shoves to a narrow value range will change the EV significantly. Let's say he decides to shove AKK* (adding just 0.28% more hands). Now we're breaking even (-$0.19) on the call.
http://hh.pokerjuice.com/report_8b67e6ec-5b21-4d2e-8563-e9de0fd6b929
Throw a few more light shoves into the mix, and we're doing fine. And > 90% of the time he folds, don't forget that. If he doesn't want to fold that much, and he prefers to shove all hands he continues with, we could be doing very well when he raises (for an extreme case, add all KK, and we're suddenly making $46 on the call).
So don't be too eager to make folds that at best are saving just a little, that's the lession here. When we make a mostly-protection (and a little value) bet into a range that is almost never strong, we need to also be sure Villain almost never gets it in light, before we try to save a little on a marginal bet-fold. Villain might not realize how few strong hands he has.
Thanks for the input ZF!
I think restricting villain's preflop range changes the number quite a bit. I don't have pokerjuice so I did sim with OO. When we use the range 20%6h:((42,72,74,22,44,77),(53,65):(2,33,4,55,66,7,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA,42,72,74,22,44,77),865,653), we have 30% equity but once we add all KK, our equity is 63.91% which is ridiculous. This happens because 20%6h syntax in OO contains tons of highcards,high pairs. So I am curious what $FI20 and $3B6I looks like. can you give me a reference?
Also, once we restrict villian's preflop range to any form of top 20% range, I don't think this range contains all of (JJ,TT,99):(53,65) but It seems that this range is huge chunk of top 20%:(gii range). For OO, it makes 6% equity difference. (30% when we include (JJ,TT,99):(53,65) and 24% when we don't)
I am just trying to calculate his expected ranges to get our equity more correctly.
Haru:
PokerJuice preflop ranges
Download all ranges (you can download and add them to your OO)
If you use the Odds Oracle x% ranges, you should subtract a 3B range from BTN, since he flatted preflop. Something like 20%!6%, or any percentages you deem reasonable. I don't think you will see a huge difference between PJ and OO ranges on this board, but it doesn't hurt to check.
Giving Villain all KK was just an extreme example to show how sensitive the EV is to variation, when his stackoff range is so tight. To illustrate the point with numbers:
100 +/- 5 is almost 100, but
10 +/- 5 is absolutely not almost 10
Since our call doesn't seem to be losing much against a reasonable stackoff range, we have to be very sure he doesn't spew. If he does, we could be making a big mistake by folding.
P.S. Just to clear up any potential misunderstanding, PJ automatically handles the job of carrying ranges over from street to street. BTN's flop stackoff range only contains those combos that made it to the flop (so that, 53+:2+ = any open-ender-or-wrap with at least a pair, that belongs to Villain's preflop range).Thanks again, ZF. I will check those ranges later.
Solid example Zen re. almost 100 not almost 10 analogy. You sir are a beacon :-)
- It would be a mistake for him not to stack of with (JJ,TT,99):(53,65).
- He can spazz out with some KK, and that's all it takes for our bet/call to be profitable.
- Hence, bet/folding this hand sounds ridiculous.
$3B6I range doesn't matter a whole lot because he called our 3bet, instead of 3betting himself. $FI20 range looks like the following:
(*!RRR:14%6h,AA:16%6h,KK:14%6h,QQ:15%6h,JJ:14%6h,AK!RR:14%6h,Axxy!RR:23%6h,*!RR![6-]:20%6h,OORR:(35%6h!JJ+),$0G:60%6h,$1G:40%6h,(AQT9-, AKJ9-, AQJ9-):34%6h,(AKJ8-, AQ98-, AQJ8-):21%6h,(KQJ-,KQT-,KJT-)!RR:20%6h,(KQ9-,KJ9-)!RR:16%6h,(4556+,4456+,6654+):40%6h,(3556+,4457+,4476+,4463+,6643+,6653+):23%6h)$nt
My point was that tight preflop calling range is not gonna contain JJ53 (maybe contains only double-suited). Aside that, I agree that this is just bet/call now but still wanted to calculate villain's range more accurately.
JJ53 type of hands in the 20% range should mostly be double suited. And these are few combos, but villain's gii range on this flop is so narrow (~10% of his preflop range) that those few combos actually make up a significant portion of that range.
Right, since his gii range is so narrow, I wanted to see whether JJ53 ds or ss is in 20%6h or $FI20!$3B6I to make sure we are calculating vs right ranges.
I checked that $FI20 contains JJ:14%6h and this contains JJ[34+35+]:xxyy and doesn't contain single suited JJ53. Thanks for the ranges.
Just because im confused now, so when we bet...
Q1 how often do we get to pick up the pot?
Q2 how often do we 1 caller?
Q3 how often do we gget 2 calls?
I feel when we get two (not often) were like dead? Or do we just keep betting?
On turns with one caller? How do we play..
I get the flop bet, if it was just a flop game.. But i see how to play turns and rivers.. without making a heap of mistakes.. Are
At this SPR I would doubt they have much of a flatting range, so this is a shove/fold situation for the most part.
@ Mitch "Check/Min-raise bluff" Peters
I get the flop bet, if it was just a flop game.. But i see how to play turns and rivers.. without making a heap of mistakes.. Are
Here's a good rule: Do the big and obvious stuff right. When you end up in the occasional tough spot, deal with it.
The Big Stuff in this hand is that you bet to pick up the pot a lot, and when one player shoves, you can get it in. That's not hard to execute, and most of the time you end up in one of those spots.
When you get called and have to play turns, you just deal with it. Ending up here occasionally should not stop you from making a good c-bet.
Besides, if you get one caller and the turn comes blank, what's to be afraid of? He called the flop with a hand weaker than yours, you have some idea about what that hand could be (a stubborn overpair perchance?), and there's just one bet left. You know what to do.
How about slowplays then? Sure, but if he calls the flop sneakily and stacks you on the turn, that's not worse for you than getting stacked on flop. Because you would have stacked off there anyway. His slowplays are good for you, because you might get away on some turns.
Q1 In Zenfish picture you can see combo count, and can see there that out of the tight pre flop range this flop would hit that range enough to stack of only 6.81 percent ( can add player 2 and his range and do calculation as well, but numbers won't go insanely different ), so considering how this flop misses all players, AA has extremely profitable c bet /for value and protection, and we can expect huge amount of folds
Q2 and Q3 - play with ranges and combo counting
On turns with one caller? How do we play..
Here is visual representation of your equity against 2 tight ranges that didn't 3 bet pre flop before you ( that narrows there first in, ranges $FI20!3B6I and !3b6O ) on turn when you are just called ( i have marked 5h card so u can compare other cards to it on graph ), so even with a caller you have enough equity to keep betting
When you bet here, you bet to get it in , not to fold but rarely, when button reraises allin and small ball calls, you may then fold exploitatively, but that wil happen extremely rarely (again,check combo count in Zenfish pic or simply do combo counts in OO)
OO sim to estimate the success rate of our c-bet.
Having concluded that calling the shove seems fine, we take a step back to investigate the c-bet that started it all. Is it a good c-bet to begin with? How often do they fold on the flop? Will we get raised often? That last question is easiest to answer, because we already have some range assumptions made.
Let's say both players' flatting ranges are 20% minus a 6% (IP and OOP) 3B range:
Player 1 = BTN = $FI20!$3B6I
Player 2 = SB = $FI20!$3B6O
We put our own cards as "Dead cards". We copy/translate the stackoff range we built from PJ into OO (right click --> Copy as OO Syntax) and make a query with it.
SO-Range
= 42+,53+:2+,865,653
--> ((42,72,74,22,44,77),(53,65):(2,33,4,55,66,7,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA,42,72,74,22,44,77),865,653)
Odds Oracle query
- How often
- At least 1 player
- Match hand range
- (42,72,74,22,44,77),(53,65):(2,33,4,55,66,7,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA,42,72,74,22,44,77),865,653)
Probability of at least one player having stackoff range = 15.08%
Conclusion
The bet-call was fine, and now we see that it's also a must-bet to begin with. We only get raised 15%, and when they don't raise they simply have to fold a lot. So we bet/get-it-in heads-up and that's all there is to it.
The circumstances are perfect, with two players on tight ranges that totally miss this board, and the BTN player is extremely tight, even for a tight player. Getting called occasionally by weak hands won't cause us much trouble on turns. Weak peels on dry boards are usually weak on the turn, too.
Final note: The multiway case
In the case they both have a stackoff hand, we have to fold. Because we have only 13.54% equity three-way in that case.
The chance both players have a stackoff hand is only 0.41%. Assuming raising hands will raise right away (no scenarios where one calls and the other raises), our model lets us conclude that:
~85% we don't get raised (they fold a lot, and call some)
~14.6% one of them raises and and we can stack off
~0.4% of the time they both stack off, and we bet-fold
More complex models can be made, but the tight preflop ranges we assigned these players restrict their postflop options so much. I don't foresee much trouble if we change the postflop model a little. They still are very weak, and can't do much to fight back against our c-bet.
Great analysis ZenFish. This was pretty eye opening for me.
Btw, is it wrong to say that the line is a bet/call while +30 bbs deeper would be a fold? That was my initial reaction.
That's spot on. The math suggests we have a marginal call/fold as it is (but can be a clearly good call with just a little spew from Villain). With 30bb deeper stacks, we can't call, unless we're certain Villain is spewing often enough.
I think this is an easy b/f flop readless fwiw, given no game history with oppont I don't think he ever shoves with a worse hand.
You think he never jams worse than two pair? No wraps or combo draws? That's effectively what your statement means. Is this realistic?
For example:Would you fold KK65 in Villain's shoes? He has some of those combos in his range, and we're 57% against them. And there others like that. They are correct to shove against our likely AA, because they have some fold equity and dead money in the pot (he needs 42% to shove profitably with zero fold equity, assuming SB never gets involved).
Note that since his preflop range is so tight, two pair and sets are scarce (he would not flat the first raise and then a 3-bet with lots of 77, 44, 22, 74, 72, 42 combos). So once he starts adding combo draws like KK65, things change quickly. Because he has so few 42+ hands to begin with.
Ok I see yours point. I'am used to play plo 20 $. I respekt yours analysis and others have doneI thinking it's a bet call it of. Thx
We just got a lovely connection between this hand and a similar one. Check that out to continue learning. :-)
http://www.runitonce.com/plo/50-kk-in-awkward-spot/
I did some equity work at the bottom there, that sheds more light on this hand, too.
Cliffs: AA on 7 4 2 rainbow and KK on 6 4 2 two-tone are very, very different.
ok thx guys
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