PLO50 - draw on the flop IP

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

PLO50 - draw on the flop IP

SB: 71.31
BB: 53.27
UTG: 63.58
HJ: 75.84 (Hero)
CO: 51.54
BN: 0
Preflop (0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A 8 J T
UTG raises to 1.75, Hero calls 1.75, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop (4.25) 5 J Q (3 Players)
UTG bets 3.50, Hero calls 3.50
Turn (11.25) 2 (3 Players)
UTG bets 9.50, Hero calls 9.50
River (30.25) 7 (3 Players)
UTG bets 21, Hero folds
Final Pot
UTG wins 49.74

Hi guys,

I have more general question, but this recent hand is a good starting point. My question is, how do you play this kind of draws IP. I tend to just call IP and wait if I hit, and OOP I usually just raise and GII to eliminate his positional advantage.

I don't feel very confortable with this outcomes. I made a quick PPT analysis vs his GII range which I construct like:

sets (QQ, JJ), KhK(A)x, AKhTh(9) and get 44%. That's not that bad I even have 42% vs top set. So I don't need that much FE to raise being profitable. I have problems how to count EV of calling. And also I'm not sure how happy I GII on a 9.

Opps is playing 23/13, cbets 77% otf, 63% ott, can provide some aditional stats if needed.

Btw w/ top 2, sometimes sets so I guess he cannot just barell turn all the time.

Thanks in advance for your comments.

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