PLO50: Ambiguous river spot with broadway.
Posted by devwil
Posted by
devwil
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO50: Ambiguous river spot with broadway.
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $34.51
SB: $52.73
BB: $21.78
UTG: $48.46 (Hero)
MP: $46.00
CO: $95.50
SB: $52.73
BB: $21.78
UTG: $48.46 (Hero)
MP: $46.00
CO: $95.50
In 35 hands, Button is 69/26 with 11.1% 3bet but only 15% overall aggression.
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is UTG with
J
A
Q
A
, , , ,
Flop
($5.50)
Q
K
8
, , ,
I think there could be an argument for checking here, but it feels pretty reasonable to bet for both value and protection. Although, we block AK and JT so we make the top of a losing calling range less likely.
Turn
($14.50)
Q
K
8
T
,
Betting the nuts.
River
($41.50)
Q
K
8
T
K
I'm very uncertain about how to play this river in retrospect.
Against what I think is a reasonable flop continuing range, PPT has us ahead, but not by a ton. (Around 54% equity, tops, depending on what you think villain can show up with.)
So, we're winning on the whole, but not by much and extracting value when we're winning versus not value-owning ourselves when we're losing seems tricky to me.
(Sorry for the flurry of posts; I'm just doing some intense hand review and finding a lot of spots I'd like to talk about!)
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