PLO400 HU River Decision

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PLO400 HU River Decision

BB: $442.70 (Hero)
SB: $1579.20
Villain is a maniac post-flop. Cbet 91%, 2nd barrel 80% and bets river 58%. He's betting rivers both for thin value and with missed draws and he tends to bet on the larger side.
He floats a lot and bets a lot of turns and rivers when I check to him.

He's been running me over so far, and I've been pretty card dead.
Preflop ($6.00) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt Q 5 3 K
SB raises to $12, Hero calls $8
Flop ($26.00) 6 9 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $16, Hero raises to $48, SB calls $32
Because villain cbets so much, I thought it would be good to c/r this hand. Perhaps I should also consider to lead flop?
Turn ($122.00) 6 9 T 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $52, SB raises to $104, Hero calls $52
Not sure what to make of this, I guess Ah flush or the blocker. Maybe he sees my size as weakness?
River ($330.00) 6 9 T 3 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $328
He rarely has boats here but he will shove the blocker or Ah flush here, or even some other retarded hand that he would have gotten to the river with (not sure what that could be tho).
If you guys have comments on any streets I'd appreciate it.

8 Comments

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babomor 12 years, 2 months ago
I guess not, obv can't be 100% sure. He was very agro with the betting initiative but didn't seem to be attacking when I showed strenght.
His c/r was only 13% and his 3bet 11% which is strange for this kind of player but I'm not sure if these stats could be of help to the present situation. It makes him more likely to have Ah flush if he doesn't 3bet a lot but not sure how important that is.
Phil Galfond 12 years, 2 months ago
I would have a hard time folding the 2nd nuts here, and I also very strongly dislike his minraise on the turn with any parts of his range. I'd prefer a bigger raise, but better yet, I'd prefer calling and playing rivers tougher in his spot.

I agree, I don't think he has many boats, but it's still a tough decision, as nothing that calls your c/r really missed. Do you know his fold to c/r stat?

The thing is, you describe him as a maniac, but all of your stats and reads are regarding situations where he has impetus. He barrels with impetus, and he bets when checked to, when you give up impetus. His c/r stat is somewhat low, so I wonder if he's the type of player to attack weakness, but not bluff-raise very often. Whether he is or not, it's an important thing to think about when breaking down an opponent.
babomor 12 years, 2 months ago
His fold to c/r is 67%. I reviewed our match and he's definitely the type to attack weakness and stay out of my way when I attack. I think the reason for that is because I was pretty much card dead and wasn't able to attack with a decent frequency.
coldids 12 years, 2 months ago
Phil,

how do you feel about the flop c/r? I'm a bit weary of his floating, especially because other than a J or a heart, no card is really that great for us to continue on (and apparently we even get a hard time on some hearts)

Also, re: 2nd nuts comment - did you see the board paired?

On the turn, I think I'd rather check and let him hang himself or valuebet worse
RiverOfTears 12 years, 2 months ago
You asked about leading the flop. If villain is cbetting too much you don't want to lead ANY flops since you want as many strong hands as possible in your xr and xc ranges.

I think you can xr here no problem but I actually like a xr on a lot of turns better. Villains turn betting range is so weak and you should adjust by check raising a lot of turns for value and as semibluffs and even naked bluffs on some boards. This hand is a very good semibluff on most turns.

I also agree that there is a big difference between cbetting w init and raising when the other players has init. Very much like some maniacs preflop are very passive postflop. But as played I am not folding the river.
babomor 12 years, 2 months ago
Good point about xr on the turn. I think overall 2barreling too much is going to be a more expensive mistake than cbetting a lot of flops so I should be looking to take advantage of that. Also by c/c the flop I'm already protecting my flop range.
F3rz3nd3 12 years, 2 months ago
U got a good point Morten, and i also think that vs this specific guy u should be happy to take his 2nd barrel as well and x/r ott.
As u said he´ll do this with a really weak range and it gives hero the chance to create a turn x/r-range which is somehow balanced and tough to play against.
And Alex, as played I´m not folding either.

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