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PLO25Z BvB oop on 763 2fl - improving to bluff catcher OTR

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PLO25Z BvB oop on 763 2fl - improving to bluff catcher OTR

BN: $25.22
SB: $30.87 (Hero)
BB: $28.44
UTG: $20.50
HJ: $65.49
CO: $15.29
readless - Zoom, 4 hands, villain has not VPIPed yet
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 8 5 8 Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50
Flop ($1.60) 3 6 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25
I feel that is a board where I have to check a lot of my range as PFR. My hand is not strong enough to bet/call or bet/gii, but likes to see a turn card. So I decided to ch/call.

Ch/calling this type of hands (SD or FD) requires me to put some hands in my ch/calling range that can continue on A,K,Q,J,T and board pairing turns. How would you play overpairs and dry 2P/sets in this spot?
Turn ($4.10) 3 6 7 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $2, Hero calls $2
I expect most villains to bet board pairs like always. I was thinking about ch/raising. The dry overpair part of his range has 50%+ equity against my hand and can bet/fold. However, I felt my hand is too strong to turn into a bluff here and I should rather do it with dry OPs. I won't ch/raise/fold much equity then.
River ($8.10) 3 6 7 7 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $7.66
Villain pots it. I think I can have dry 54, T98 and a bunch of overpairs here that have to fold now. The main flushdraw missed. Villain should not keep betting his Straights or 7xxx hands. It feels like a call to me.

Note to myself: Need to get to the river with some hands that can ch/raise here.

What is your weakest value hand you would check raise OTR vs unknowns?

Please, share your thoughts on every street.

10 Comments

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jonna102 11 years, 3 months ago

I don't think your hand is really strong enough to check-call this flop.  You're making it very easy for your opponent to just barrel you off of your hand.  If you're not going to bet this flop, then I'd suggest just check-folding and moving on to the next hand.

ZenFish 11 years, 3 months ago

Agreed, bet-fold or check-fold, and briefly think about a check-raise bluff (but I wouldn't don't do it with this hand, because I think we have lots of better candidates).

I think it's good that Hero thinks about how preflop ranges connect with flops. That said, poor playability on low-connected boards is more of a problem as a 3-bettor or tight opener than as a loose opener (presumably, Hero opens somewhat wide here). 

Also, in a Zoom game I would generally lean towards overbluffing against unknowns if I were in doubt. So bet-fold for me.


jonna102 11 years, 3 months ago

Well you're not supposed to make it to the turn and river in this spot imo.  I think you end up drawing to the second best hand too often on the flop, and that's why I suggest you fold right there.  Now you made your hand, one that is probably too often second best, and villain close-to-pots into you.  That should give you some indication why you are having difficulties with turn and river.  You can probably do any combination of calling and folding, and likely find that either of them do worse than just folding the flop right away.

James Bond 11 years, 3 months ago

Could check/folding this hand really be better than check/calling? It seems we will turn a hand worth check/calling with (once or twice more) somewhat often, we can turn additional equity with flush draws, we hold potential future blockers and can also bluff in some instances (e.g. if a flush card turns, it goes X/X and the river bricks). When only comparing check/folding vs check/calling, I think the latter seems superior. Thoughts? 


midori 11 years, 3 months ago

Yeah I would lean towards betting the flop.  I don't think he will raise you light on this flop and there's some immediate FE as well.  If he just flats, we can bet through on some board runouts and x/decide on others. 

As played I don't know, once we check this flop he should expect us to fold either on flop or turn quite often, so his betting range can be very wide in this spot.  I agree that our hand is a bit too weak because we only have a few nut outs (non-spade 4s), but we can continue on a couple more turn cards (8/T/spades) and his range is not necessarily strong so x/c is probably better than x/f.  It's gonna be hard to get value when we hit or correctly call down/fold when we don't, but that doesn't always mean we should x/f this flop.  I can be convinced otherwise though.

unbuwoha 11 years, 3 months ago

There is agreement with overbluff cbetting beeing profitable in this
spot vs unknowns. In villain's shoes the max exploitative strategy (vs
unknowns) would be to never fold here vs cbets, right?

ZenFish 11 years, 3 months ago

Villain can call (and raise) a lot in position vs a wide betting range, but he can't automatically exploit Hero by continuing with everything (as in, zero-equity hands).

For example, let's say you have a weak flop range, and you know Hero also does. You decide to call everything on the flop, planning to bet-fold all your air on the turn if he checks, and otherwise give up with those hands.

Hero can easily counter your exploitative flop floating strategy by simply always betting or check-raising turn. Now you can take it to the next level to exploit those exploits, but the point is that defending enough on the flop in isolation is no guarantee that you'll exploit his overbluffing there.

Note that:

1) Hero's preflop opening range is stronger than Villain's preflop calling range. This strength difference carries over to postflop play (although the flop type matters a lot). 

Hero's range isn't capped (Hero can always have the flopped nuts, and he has hands that will end up as the nuts on turns and rivers). Whereas Villain's range is sparse in premium high-card hands (since he didn't 3-bet), which will be important on certain flops. Villain's range does well on low flops, though, but that doesn't mean Hero is defenseless on those flops. 

2) Hero shouldn't bet all his total air on the flop, even if he's overbluffing. 

3) If Hero is playing well, he'll bet, c/c and c/r turns in such a way that it will be difficult for Villain to auto-profit from floating flops and stabbing turns with total air.

4) It could be that Villain is correct in defending close-to-zero-equity hands on the flop, but only if he plays turn/river perfectly versus Hero's turn/river strategy thereafter (floating a flop bet with air, without a plan for future streets, is unlikely to do you good). This is hard to pull off.

It's complicated to calculate exactly how wide Villain should defend vs c-bets, because we would need to solve the game for all the postflop streets (not each street in isolation), which is impossible. 

But what we can say is this: If Villain can profitably defend with his very worst hands, then Hero is making a mistake somewhere. But that mistake isn't necessarily confined to the flop. It could also be that he doesn't defend his range enough on future streets after getting called, even if he isn't overbluffing. 


unbuwoha 11 years, 3 months ago
Thx, nice discussion.

I was thinking of putting my folding hands (zero equity) into the raise/fold part of my range OTF (still talking being in villain's shoes in position). That the player pool (still refering to unknowns) is overcbet bluffing here does not mean they defend enough vs raises imho. It is also difficult to do oop, since 3betting is very costly as a bluff and just calling caps most players hand strength.
I agree that floating wide is not a good option readless. From my experience most players at low stakes cannot imagine getting just called by a strong hand OTF on a dynamic board, keep barreling and do not fold weak made hands on blank turns to a raise. That's why I would stick to a very strong calling range.
Basically a zero equity raise OTF needs to work around 65% of the time. Even if hero (SB) is not betting all his air, he might not have enough strong hands to defend against a raise, especially on this low type of boards. Villain can often check behind OTT and realise all of his nonzero equity if called. However, I think my database is not large enough to prove profitability of this play.

Btw, I called OTR, villain showed AQ64 bare missed GS.
ZenFish 11 years, 3 months ago

I agree, ramping up the flop raising frequency should work well against overbluffers who are trying to exploit the population's overfolding tendencies in the simplest possible way. 

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