PLO25 ZOOM River bluffcatch

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PLO25 ZOOM River bluffcatch

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $39.51 (Hero)
SB: $64.77
BB: $39.07
UTG: $78.74
MP: $16.53
CO: $47.21
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with K 6 5 K
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, SB folds, BB raises to $2.60, Hero calls $1.75
Flop ($5.30) 4 T 2
BB bets $4.60, Hero calls $4.60
Turn ($14.50) 4 T 2 7
BB checks, Hero checks
River ($14.50) 4 T 2 7 3
BB bets $9.90, Hero calls $9.90

Preflop seems OK 150bb deep, flop call and turn check back also seem fine to me for obvious reasons. I have no reads/stats on this player.
Do you guys this this river bluffcatch is +EV in vacuum with our Kc blocker?

Thanks

8 Comments

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Phil Galfond 9 years, 4 months ago

I like the call. One of the better hands you'll have in this spot, and the Kc blocker is perhaps the most relevant blocker to hold.

Most people are way more likely to turn a hand into a bluff with the bare Ac than the bare Kc, so I prefer the King in my hand to the Ace (or any other club).

Well played. Hope you won :)

Bennyvo 9 years, 3 months ago

It's close i think, in a vacuum i would prefer folding.
At these stakes the 3bet and the pot on the flop is most likely to be AA, Hard to say whether he would cbet turn with AA+FD. So i would also think he has nut blocker here sometimes, Often enough to call? I don't know

LOL_MATH 9 years, 3 months ago

Thanks for the comments, guys! I checked the turn because at the time I thought it's the best way to realize my equity without getting blown off by c/shoves, protection is not very important here (?).
At the moment I might lean more towards b/folding though, I guess its close?

Killian757 9 years, 3 months ago

By checking turn we do get to realize our equity and not get blown off by a c/r. Also villains continuing range when we bet is doing much better than our actual hand. Occasionally we get value out of 98xx or Txxx, but mostly it's AAxx or better. And the combo draws probably go for a c/r.

As for the river I do think it is a call in theory with the K blocker. Like Phil said it is very relevant. But in person I might find an exploitative fold without reads. The player pool at 25plo do not bluff enough and the generic 2/3 bet is overwhelming a value bet in my experience.

Jaibe 9 years, 3 months ago

I would probably fold just because bet/check/bet line is mosly a value line thant a bluff line at theses stakes imo.

Pokerlogical 9 years, 3 months ago

Like Phil said, the call is probably really good in theory.
But I think that at PLO25 people are underbluffing in some spots and this is one of them.

I think the betsizing villain uses is too small for a bluff. Most people would probably bet in the 11.50$-13.50$ area if they were bluffing with the bare Ac blocker.

But every villain is different, so are their betsizing patterns. Maybe this villain bluffs with a 9,90$ sizing... although I really doubt it.

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