PLO25 - Shove Turn w Top 2pair, line check
Posted by Joao Leao
Posted by
Joao Leao
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO25 - Shove Turn w Top 2pair, line check
HJ: $31.70
CO: $24.65 (Hero)
BN: $20.72
SB: $13.67
BB: $25.77
UTG: $18.85
CO: $24.65 (Hero)
BN: $20.72
SB: $13.67
BB: $25.77
UTG: $18.85
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
J
Q
8
UTG raises to $0.85, HJ folds, Hero calls $0.85, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
UTG raises to $0.85, HJ folds, Hero calls $0.85, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($2.05)
Q
7
A
(2 Players)
UTG bets $1.96,
Hero calls $1.96
Turn
($5.97)
Q
7
A
8
(2 Players)
UTG bets $2.86,
Hero raises to $14.30
Villain is unknown, first hand against him. Although he’s not playing with a full-stack, let’s assume he’s at least a decent player and see if my line makes sense in a vacuum.
In game, I raised the Turn because:
1. I think we have the best hand most of the time and we won’t improve on most Rivers.
2. We charge draws that now have less equity.
3. We can still get calls from weaker hands (weaker two pair, pair + draw).
An additional reason – and I guess that’s a leak – is the fear of facing a tough decision on the River as there are a lot of cards that complete draws in villain’s range.
Is this reasonable? Or should we call Turn and play River in position (SPR will be aprox. 1.28)?
Thanks for your help.
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I would raise flop and fold to a reraise. You are most likely ahead and would like to take it down immediately before he picks up more equity.
I think I raise cause he bets smallish and we block the A of diamonds so less combos of AA QQ that also block diamonds. But I fold this preflop against a pot from utg readless.
The turn bet is weak and attacking it is not bad however, I do not like your size. You are putting him all in basically and I am not convinced you are that ahead of his stacking off range. I haven't run these through an equity calculator so I could be wrong but this is just my gut instinct. I don't think a pair and a flush draw or a wrap/oesd plus a FD, even if they are not to the nuts, is folding. A smaller raise accomplishes the same thing and a call is not that bad. You get to play the river in position and your hand range is still really wide/unreadable from his point of view therefore his river action is usually honest because you could have one of the draws that comes in. He is rarely potting it without the nuts so you can safely fold when/if he does. And when the board pairs he will often expect you to have raised the turn with sets trying to get it in before a scary river. Also you have the nut flush blocker which could help with hand reading if a diamond comes in. But to be honest I am really unconvinced as to the value of blockers at these stakes purely because you get most value from making worse hands call which works because the player pool plays in such a way that they do not often fold 2nd or 3rd or 4th or 5th...best hands even to big bets so how can we expect them to fold etc when we have blockers?
If you were OOP I think a check/raise is good though. Why? For the same reasons that you want to call or raise smaller and play the river in position in this instant. It isn't necessarily the best way to play poker, but consider how you could make your opponent's life most difficult in this situation? Sets, he will want to go with so will welcome the raise so he doesn't have to play the river and wrap plus flush draw hands he is often happy to get in for the same reason. What is left is often crap that you dominate anyway, which yes sometimes will call, but often will just fold.
Nonsense, potraise for fold equity and charging his gutter and flushdraw.
His UTG range hits the two high cards pretty well if he is a decent player and plays tight from early position but im never folding here. You could think about a tight fold pre... I like the call OTF cuz it would suck to get 3bet. When he bets small OTT im pretty sure we have the best hand here. Only monsters imo would bet small like AAxx or AQ with the nut FD, which he cant have!
I think it would be a mistake to call turn and let him see a cheap river. He is not full staked and you have little over pot left. Since you are never raise folding in this case i would just pot it to maximize fod equity and charge his draws. This also prevents you from making incorrect fold OTR. He might put you on a draw that you picked up OTT and calls with a hand like A8xx which would be amazing. So lots of good things can happen... :-)
we're more than happy to see him fold something like JT7x with diamonds at this point, we don't want to induce a call.
I'm fine with either calling or folding this pre, if there are some bad players in the blinds I'm not gonna fold this hand pretty much ever.
I don't see much reason to raise the flop (would be hard to find a r/c range here anyway other than weak AA), i think we pretty much isolate ourselves against his good draws and hands that have us crushed/drawing dead.
Turn with him betting smaller and the board getting more drawy it's getting closer for me between calling and raising, but until I have some sort of a read that is is going bonkers I would not raise the turn.
His draws might have ok to good equity against your hand, but what you have is position and the fact that the times he has a good madehand himself that has you beat, the times the board gets more scary you are losing so much less compared to the times where you get it in on the turn against his range. It's pretty much a high risk - low reward situation for you on the turn if you end up shoving, and given that we have no redraw for the times we are crushed I'm not really excited about it.
Cthulu23 JT7x with diamonds is a double gutter with a flush draw both straights are to the nuts as well, so I am not convinced that is ever folding. Also if you think about what x is going to be from an UTG raising range it is likely to add equity to their hand via more outs or by blocking hero's outs. By this I mean x is going to make the one pair 7 into two pair or give the opponent a wrap as opposed to just the double gutter or straight flush draw all of which of course we are happy to see him fold, but I don't believe he ever is. I think essentially we have different estimations for people's folding frequencies.
I don't really care if he's folding or not, if he's calling I want him to make a bigger EV mistake, why would I bet smaller if I'm never bet folding and I don't have the unbreakable nuts? and if I pot he's got what.. 3$ left? raising small is just dumb. Fwiw I don't think he's folding JT with diamonds either but that's not the point.
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