PLO25 - Should I bet this turn?
Posted by Ph33roX
Posted by
Ph33roX
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO25 - Should I bet this turn?
BN: Callori: $19.15
SB: 16088373: $18.37
BB: Tifuxis: $27.73
UTG: hans.zijl: $35.92
HJ: Ph33roX: $25
CO: SEBI-D373: $39.08
SB: 16088373: $18.37
BB: Tifuxis: $27.73
UTG: hans.zijl: $35.92
HJ: Ph33roX: $25
CO: SEBI-D373: $39.08
Villian was running 35/8 with a 0% 3bet over 83 hands, so def a bit passive preflop. Postflop he had a 4/8 donk stat, and fold vs cbet only 2/6. We can assume it's likely he likes to stick around more often than not.
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Ph33roX was dealt
K
J
A
8
hans.zijl folds, Ph33roX raises to $0.85, SEBI-D373 calls $0.85, Callori calls $0.85, 16088373 calls $0.75, Tifuxis folds
hans.zijl folds, Ph33roX raises to $0.85, SEBI-D373 calls $0.85, Callori calls $0.85, 16088373 calls $0.75, Tifuxis folds
Flop
($3.65)
A
7
J
(4 Players)
16088373 checks,
Ph33roX bets $2.60,
SEBI-D373 folds,
Callori folds,
16088373 calls $2.60
Turn
($8.85)
A
7
J
9
(2 Players)
16088373 checks,
Ph33roX checks
Had we started the hand 100BB deep and not 73bb deep, I think this would have been a pretty straightforward bet/fold spot against this opponent. But given the SPR on the turn is 1.68, it feels kind of dirty to bet/fold top two here. What do you guys think?
River
($8.85)
A
7
J
9
2
(2 Players)
16088373 bets $4,
Ph33roX folds
River seems like a pretty straightforawrd fold to me, every possible draw got there and the sizing isn't small enough to be a block-bet from J7 type hand often enough. I expect to be beat here 80%+.
Final Pot
16088373
wins $8.47
Loading 6 Comments...
Yeah, pretty clear turn bet with your 8 blocker and no clubs in your hand.
+1.
Also, when we bet this flop 4-way after raising in the HJ, we have a very strong range. Intuitively, bet-folding two pair without backup should not hurt us. There's fold equity and our range should have enough betting hands with enough outs to GII.
Thanks. So if we bet 7$ or so, and he jams for another 8$, we can still fold? We'll need to call 8 into a pot of 31 and we'll need around 21% equity. I plugged into PPT a range for villian that consists of 90% T8**, and 10% combo draws (2pair+FD, wrap+FD). Against that range we have 17.4% equity (not enough to call). Is this a reasonable assumption by me about his range?
Yeah it kinda sucks but I don't think we have enough equity to call it off, so it has to be bet/fold. However, I don't think he will x/jam very often, so we don't need to worry about it that much.
+1 to bet. straight blocker and lack of fd blockers make it even clearer. like zenfish's comment that our range is protected here too
I agree with betting turn, but do we really b/f? I can imagine him shoving something like 2pair+draw. Given the great odds we get it would be a real pain in the ass to fold there.
Be the first to add a comment