PLO25: Middle set gets ugly.
Posted by devwil
Posted by
devwil
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO25: Middle set gets ugly.
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (5 Players)
BN: $21.31
SB: $21.56
BB: $42.46
UTG: $66.32 (Hero)
CO: $28.62
SB: $21.56
BB: $42.46
UTG: $66.32 (Hero)
CO: $28.62
Button is looking loose-passive over an extremely small sample. SB is somewhat loose-aggressive without seeming competent, BB is loose-passive.
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is UTG with
7
7
K
K
, , , ,
Flop
($3.40)
7
9
6
, , , , , ,
I decided to check/call to see about a safe/good turn card.
In retrospect, I don't think I like it at all. I think that leading around $2.75 or so makes sense, or—failing that—check-raising pot. Button is slightly short, SB & BB seem relatively unenthusiastic about the hand, and against a really strong value range (which Button's bet doesn't exclusively suggest), I don't think we're in such bad shape that we're utterly valuetowning ourselves.
In retrospect, I don't think I like it at all. I think that leading around $2.75 or so makes sense, or—failing that—check-raising pot. Button is slightly short, SB & BB seem relatively unenthusiastic about the hand, and against a really strong value range (which Button's bet doesn't exclusively suggest), I don't think we're in such bad shape that we're utterly valuetowning ourselves.
Turn
($9.40)
7
9
6
9
, , , , ,
Bad sizing here. Between playing this hand and posting it, I've watched Coldwell's bet sizing video and I've stopped making the mistake of making too many ~half-pot bets.
That said, I'm not sure what the best line here is. If the pot was bigger from a more aggressive flop line, maybe it's just a GII situation?
In retrospect, maybe I should have just potted or close to it? Either that or the complete opposite: checking. Letting a draw catch up or making a straight think they're still good could be +EV for the river.
That said, I'm not sure what the best line here is. If the pot was bigger from a more aggressive flop line, maybe it's just a GII situation?
In retrospect, maybe I should have just potted or close to it? Either that or the complete opposite: checking. Letting a draw catch up or making a straight think they're still good could be +EV for the river.
River
($19.80)
7
9
6
9
6
,
Interesting river. But not in a good way.
This is the only street I'm kind of okay with postflop, in terms of how I actually played it. Betting makes so little sense here, because there are virtually no worse hands for Button to call with. Ad9:dd MAYBE. But if I check, I can conceivably get value from bluffs.
But for that to make sense, Button needs to have a range by this point that has some bluffs in it. I have such a small sample against this player that being read-dependent about it isn't really viable, so it all depends on the math of it versus their range. And ranging loose-passive players at PLO25 is something I'm still not confident about, which is why I'm bringing this hand to the forums.
This is the only street I'm kind of okay with postflop, in terms of how I actually played it. Betting makes so little sense here, because there are virtually no worse hands for Button to call with. Ad9:dd MAYBE. But if I check, I can conceivably get value from bluffs.
But for that to make sense, Button needs to have a range by this point that has some bluffs in it. I have such a small sample against this player that being read-dependent about it isn't really viable, so it all depends on the math of it versus their range. And ranging loose-passive players at PLO25 is something I'm still not confident about, which is why I'm bringing this hand to the forums.
So, as I say in the street-by-street comments, I'm really not thrilled with my play in retrospect. Happy to get feedback on anything here.
That said, as-played, I want to know how people would range Button in deciding if a river call is okay.
By the river, my most optimistic range for Button is this: (99@4, 66@4, TT+@1, T8@3, Ad*d@2):70%6H (their VPIP is 70 in my database).
We're crushing that, but it's probably unrealistic. Getting a little more realistic, we still have better than 75% equity against (99@4, 66@4, T8@2):70%6H.
But even less optimistically, we're at under 40% equity against (99, 66, T98):70%6H, and we need at least 41% equity to break even on this call, if I'm not mistaken.
So what range are you plugging in here for the river?
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