PLO25: AA facing potlead on Q22 rb

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

PLO25: AA facing potlead on Q22 rb

BN: $25 (Hero)
SB: $99.16
BB: $26.63
HJ: $14.26
CO: $24.87
villain 90/7 over 30 hands
FCbet 27
first time he has led so far
Preflop ($0.35) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt K A A Q
HJ calls $0.25, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.10, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls $0.85
Flop ($2.55) 2 2 Q (2 Players)
HJ bets $2.44

Do we call although the board is super dry, he has a lot more 2x and QQ in his range than the average player? Maybe just hope for him having some random Qx or KK (in that case out blockers work against us) or just spazzing out because a dry paired board is hard to hit and he might expect me to fold often?

I'd expect a turn bet very often though so how do we continue there if call is the right flop play?

11 Comments

Loading 11 Comments...

Zergwentape 11 years ago

I call flop/turn if he is aggressive postflop. Otherwise its a sigh peel OTF and fold OTT since he has it around 15% of times.

ohgodwhy 11 years ago

Well, then how do you expect to win the hand often enough to already make the flop call? Would you call if he bet 2/3 or 3/4 pot OTT? Do you expect him to giveup often enough, especially with his stacksize, so that we make it to SD often enough? I honestly wouldn't, that's why I don't see much sense in call flop, fold turn yet.

ohgodwhy 11 years ago
Ye, that's the thing. It's hard to fold though cause if I fold AA here then I basically only continue with a 2 or QQ which I very rarely have in my range. Thus folding everything worse than that whereas I'm probably cbetting 100% is obviously expolitable to no end. I'm not saying he's taking advantage of it, at least not consciously, but it's still ringing alarm bells, especially considering that it absolutely doesn't make any sense at all for him to be pot leading that strong of a hand into me.


Simon Ash 11 years ago

Would tend to think that if you call flop you are probably going with it as per your argument above... On the other hand, if he has a 2 (or QQ) why not x.r as I assume he is expecting you will c-bet?

SatayIsAwesome 11 years ago

What am i missing? isnt this one of the reads will make it easier sort of situations, I really think that situations like these it all depends on who you're playing. He's Repping A strong 2 minimum. It seems to be at plo25 this is either the nuts or the nuts and he's trying to make it look bluffy. I dont think that there is many regs bluffing like this, so calling an re-evaluating on the turn would be a bad play if he wasn't so casual, but i think you're guessing at best so fold for now, but look to see if he does this in the future, i think with more info this would be an easy call or fold...

If i've missed something can someone explain how?

midori 11 years ago

I wouldn't worry too much about being exploitable here, because most likely you are not being exploited by a 90/7 villain.  I still lean towards calling the flop though, not because I don't want to be folding ~top of my range and being exploited, but because I think he can sometimes play KK/AQ like this.  That said, flop play seems close either way and I don't think we can go horribly wrong.

I also don't think he will always pot again on the turn if we call here, I've seen lots of rec players who do this and give up on later streets.  But if he does bet again, it's an easy fold there.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy