PLO25: AA facing potlead on Q22 rb
Posted by ohgodwhy
Posted by
ohgodwhy
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO25: AA facing potlead on Q22 rb
BN: $25 (Hero)
SB: $99.16
BB: $26.63
HJ: $14.26
CO: $24.87
SB: $99.16
BB: $26.63
HJ: $14.26
CO: $24.87
villain 90/7 over 30 hands
FCbet 27
first time he has led so far
FCbet 27
first time he has led so far
Preflop
($0.35)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
A
A
Q
HJ calls $0.25, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.10, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls $0.85
HJ calls $0.25, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.10, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls $0.85
Flop
($2.55)
2
2
Q
(2 Players)
HJ bets $2.44
Do we call although the board is super dry, he has a lot more 2x and QQ in his range than the average player? Maybe just hope for him having some random Qx or KK (in that case out blockers work against us) or just spazzing out because a dry paired board is hard to hit and he might expect me to fold often?
I'd expect a turn bet very often though so how do we continue there if call is the right flop play?
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i peel
I call flop/turn if he is aggressive postflop. Otherwise its a sigh peel OTF and fold OTT since he has it around 15% of times.
I called flop, turn was a 6d he potted again, only leaving 2$ and change behind.
Easy fold, unless he is a maniac.
Call flop and if he pots turn take a note and fold
Well, then how do you expect to win the hand often enough to already make the flop call? Would you call if he bet 2/3 or 3/4 pot OTT? Do you expect him to giveup often enough, especially with his stacksize, so that we make it to SD often enough? I honestly wouldn't, that's why I don't see much sense in call flop, fold turn yet.
I don't mind folding flop, i just don't think its a big mistake to call OTF anyway.
Would tend to think that if you call flop you are probably going with it as per your argument above... On the other hand, if he has a 2 (or QQ) why not x.r as I assume he is expecting you will c-bet?
What am i missing? isnt this one of the reads will make it easier sort of situations, I really think that situations like these it all depends on who you're playing. He's Repping A strong 2 minimum. It seems to be at plo25 this is either the nuts or the nuts and he's trying to make it look bluffy. I dont think that there is many regs bluffing like this, so calling an re-evaluating on the turn would be a bad play if he wasn't so casual, but i think you're guessing at best so fold for now, but look to see if he does this in the future, i think with more info this would be an easy call or fold...
If i've missed something can someone explain how?
I wouldn't worry too much about being exploitable here, because most likely you are not being exploited by a 90/7 villain. I still lean towards calling the flop though, not because I don't want to be folding ~top of my range and being exploited, but because I think he can sometimes play KK/AQ like this. That said, flop play seems close either way and I don't think we can go horribly wrong.
I also don't think he will always pot again on the turn if we call here, I've seen lots of rec players who do this and give up on later streets. But if he does bet again, it's an easy fold there.
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