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PLO200 stars, TP in 3B against aggressive villain

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

PLO200 stars, TP in 3B against aggressive villain

HJ: uberskilled: $214.92
CO: Villain: $526.88
BN: Hero: $431.22
SB: Tanzhase: $200
BB: Kitikati: $133.99
Preflop ($3.00) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt J 7 Q 8
uberskilled folds, Villain raises to $6, Hero raises to $21, Tanzhase folds, Kitikati folds, Villain calls $15
Flop ($45.00) Q 6 3 (2 Players)
Villain bets $30, Hero calls $30
Turn ($105.00) Q 6 3 6 (2 Players)
Villain bets $52, Hero calls $52
River ($209.00) Q 6 3 6 9 (2 Players)
Villain bets $184, Hero calls $184
Villain and I have been tangling a bunch and I have been 3betting him alot. He plays 27/21 and never folds to my 3bets. I've been playing smth like 28/22 3B% 11ish. I have been taking down alot of pots against him, he's been cf flop a lot to me or folding to a barrel on the turn or river. I stacked him once earlier where I flatted him pf with AJ98ss, raised flop A93r and he then CRAI on turn 6, turning a flushdraw and a straighdraw w 9874.
This is the first time I have seen him donkbet and I have no idea with it means.

Anyway I think I really fucked up this hand and just went into donk-mode postflop... Any advice much appreciated

4 Comments

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melissafan 12 years, 1 month ago
I would play the same way up until river, and then it's a guessing game. His turn sizing is interesting and can be a very important factor when deciding on river play. For me its a sing of weakness when bet was made by a strong player (why not bet bigger, polarize urself and set up bigger river bet), if he's weak player it can go both ways (strong or weak).
At river:
ur range: Qx, KK, AA, 6x
his range: given ur history (u being barrel-happy) i would never put him on a flop strong range. For me his range is: fd, 45, 6x, 3x. Unfortunately sometimes he will make a bad play with a strong holding, such as Q6, or a set, but you block Q so mathematicly it's much less likely.
So to sum up, his range: 6x, 99(?), busted flush draws and straight draws.
Problem: it's very easy, in his eyes, to put him on a weak hand given that every draw missed. Also your range is combined with many decent bluffcatchers, such as AQ/AA/KK which will be very tempted (in my opinion looking from his perspective) to call.
So: how likely is he to be frustrated? is he capable of firing this as a bluff ? For me, psychology+math tell me to bluffcatch this river.
Unfortunately he did have you beat i suppose by u posting this hand and ur explanation :) Im curious what he had :D
Maikel1983 12 years, 1 month ago
Turn, betsizing is the key in this hand. HERO+Villain are both 200+bb deep, why would villain bet so small for value or as bluff?
1) Villain loses value, from HERO's bluffcatchers
2) HERO isn't likely to bluff-raise this turn and will slowplay for value

On the river, I am not really happy. Although I don't see villain take this line as bluff, with small betsize turn and 90% pot bet on river. With your actual hand HERO only beats a bluff.
rengonnaren 12 years, 1 month ago
I think were underestimating the bad AA/KK combos for villain here and may be more likely given turn sizing. given we didnt raise flop AA/KK are much more likely ahead.

what are your frequencies for checking back the flop in three bet pots? any recent history with the villain where youre checking back flops v him?

id be more confident calling AQ here, thoughts on jamming river to fold out AA/KK/AQ/Q9/6x does a 6 fold if we shove? we shouldn't have much of a bluffshove range in his eyes, or does he simply say "eh, pot odds?"
goldy14 12 years, 1 month ago
I think you have to consider if vilain is river bluff happy. Some aggro Vilain like to bluff flop and turn with some equity but they will never bluff river that much especially deep oop. Without knowing vilain river tendency I think its a clear fold on the river

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