PLO200 river bluffraise ?

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PLO200 river bluffraise ?

http://weaktight.com/5928658


Villian is a PLO HU midstakes reg and his lowest limit is 1/2.  He calls 27% oop  and 3b 41% (!!!) pre .

Flop :

He CR Flop 20%  and folds to cbets 50%.

I give him a kind of polaired CR RANGE of    JJ , 77 , 33 , (50%) J7,  AsXs,  89T,  and some air / naked gutter type hands.   I rule out J3  and 73 combos because he would much more likely flat these hands.


Turn :   

I think on turn he cc at least some of his J7,  JJ, 33 combos as he was the type of player betting polarised on turns / afraid of getting raised this deep.

 he will definitely bet his  gutshots and FD´s on turn.


I think u CAN fold the turn, because on most rivers we will hate to face aggression.

But T, 9, 8, J and spades are good cards for us.
So i call the turn.


River : 

What do u think of an river shove ?????

We can credibly rep  JJ and J7 in our range + We block one J .  

77 is very unlikely and there are not much 33 combos in his preflop cold calling range.

Furthermore we can discount at least some J7  combos, because he never craise with all J7 combos the flop +  he ´s  much more likely to c/c the turn with those .


The Question is if he vbets/ bluff enough of the time, to make this move +EV. 

I think he bets the Nutflush,  Nutflushblocker,  J blocker on his own !?

What do u think of his betting range here?


Do u like the river shove or do u think there are simply not enough combos he would bet/fold?


9 Comments

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RiverOfTears 11 years, 6 months ago

These spots HU are so hard to judge from the sideline. However, you do have quite a few blockers to the hands you are trying to fold out: 89T and flushes. J345 might have been a better hand to do it with. And I am not sure that he expects you to flat JJ and even all J7 here? Had you been 3betting the flop in the match?

jonna102 11 years, 6 months ago

I think you can consider shoving the turn here.  That's probably better than calling.  If you're only calling the flop raise to "get there" then I think it's a bad call as there's a good chance your outs are not very clean.  You'll need some alternative plan if you're going to call that check-raise.  Shoving the turn he basically has to fold all draws that dominate you, probably two pair, and against his sets you still have reasonable equity.

spartacus87 11 years, 6 months ago

shoving turn is a very good idea, i did not think about this line so far.  But u are right , he has to fold 2pairs / better draws and  maybe he folds even sets.    

RiverOfTears 11 years, 6 months ago

Yeah, it a good spot where:

1. You can rep a very strong hand (straight) and make a lot of hands w equity fold.

2. If Villain happens to have the hand you are repping (unlikely) you have a lot of outs against that hand.


Zachary Freeman 11 years, 6 months ago

How do you rep JJ on river? You would be either 3betting flop or potting turn. Even J7 is a hand you should be potting turn with sometimes. I don't think you rep what a boat well and what better hands is he ever bluffing river with? It's a choice between call and fold, I think raise is by far worst option.

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