PL200 - QJ97ds 3barrel shove
Posted by Bluechip
Posted by
Bluechip
posted in
Mid Stakes
PL200 - QJ97ds 3barrel shove
CO: $160.00
BN: $129.97 (Hero)
SB: $171.70
BB: $128.82
Hi guys!
Here's a key hand I played in my last session where I'd like some feedback.
The reason I'm not fullstacked is because of a stop loss limit I've set up. We're playing anonymous tables so no stats on our opponent.
Preflop seems fine to me to raise over CO limp with a hand that is very smooth, double suited and connected.
Flop
- I'm flopping an 8-out open ender with 2 overs.
- SPR is 4
- Given the preflop action, the CO should have a range advantage here
- My range is more weighted towards high pairs and high cards
- I think I have a great hand for checking back rather than betting. This hand is not strong enough to continue against a check raise, and has many good runouts (5,Y,7,9,J,Q, diamond)
When Opponent calls my Cbet, I think his check/calling range is mostly 99-KK, any open ender except the top wrap T97 and any bare 8 or 6.
I'm actually behind this range at 41%, which .leans toward checking it back
Turn
- The Kd turn gives me the 3rd nut flush draw with my OESD which gives me at best 9 outs to a the 3rd nut flush.
- SPR = 1.65
- I have 6 outs to the nuts (5, T with no diamond), and 9 outs to the 3rd nut flush.
- Given the very low SPR, I believe I should now bet / calling it off
- I have Opponent check/calling me with K:dd,Add,57+:dd,86,K8,83. I don't think they can fold the nut flush draw at these stakes, and I think they would play passively with these hands.
I'm not quite sure how to proceed here. Is checking back a better move? Given the low SPR it seems to me that bet/commiting is a better play, but I seem to be having a very low equity against the range that is calling me given my assumptions.
River
- The Flush missed, straights are possible with 45, 59, 9T
- I have blockers to some straights
- I basically have no showdown value with 4th pair (as confirmed in the ´share’ EV of checking of barely $2,8.
- I also have very little fold equity when shoving 50 into 171
When using the stack off range module assuming he stacks off with any two pair K3+ and straights, it seems shoving is highly profitable even given the low SPR.
Overall I think I should just check back the flop and turn.
What are your thoughts about this one?
Thanks for your feedback!
Guillaume
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Hey Guillaume!
Firstly, thanks again for the well thought out post.
Secondly, I think that the flop decision is iffy, but the rest of the hand is well played.
On the flop, nobody's range should smash this board, and your equity vs. their ranges should be decent. I think doing some betting is totally fine, and this hand is a decent candidate in that you have good equity and you block some of their continuing hands. The downside, as you mentioned, is that you can't call a large x/r, which would be a 'waste' of this hand. In conclusion there, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
On the turn, the King is a really, really bad card for his range, so you should have a ton of Fold Equity to go along with your outs. I'd always be betting.
The main point I want to focus on is that twice you said:
When you're making a semi-bluff, you SHOULD be behind their calling range!!
You make these bets because you win the pot when they fold and you have some equity when they don't, not because you want value from their calling range.
Never let an equity analysis like that convince you that you shouldn't bet a draw. You've got Q high here - you're not supposed to be ahead!
As I mentioned earlier, equity calculations are only valuable if you put in the right ranges and draw the right conclusions.
Start to focus more on some other ways of thinking.
For example: You were representing a very strong range and once this river hits, almost every flopped draw got there. It's really hard for you to have air, so you're at the bottom of your range with a 9 blocker.
Without doing any stack-off calculations, I know that I want to bluff this hand simply due to where I'm at in my range.
Hey Phil,
Thanks again for the answer. It does help tremendously in my thinking process, like, say, Tiger Woods telling you to “just raise your left palm from a degree or two when you play”.
I try to think more in ranges, as said, and as you and Nick mentioned also, who has the range advantage on this board, what should I do with my range and where does this specific combo I’m holding should fit into my range.
I actually first did a range vs range on this Flop, which ended up being very complex and subject to error.
However it made me think about which combos of my range would I value bet, bluff bet and check back here.
I ended up with
- value betting of course any set, any two pair (given my stack and SPR, otherwise I’d probably check back at least bottom two), and T97x
- betting 99-AA mainly for protection (But they would have to fold to a check raise)
- bluff betting 77 as a straight blocker, any bare bottom pair, 9T gutshots
- checking back anything else (any 6,8, OESD)
So technically, it made me think that this combo had to go in my check back range.
That seemed reasonable to me, but again, I’m learning :)
Your point is very very interesting about equity vs his calling range.
I guess that’s what some regular forum posters would tell you “yeah it’s obvious” once it’s been said but they probably wouldn’t come up with it themselves.
I’m saying that because it does seem very logical when you say it, and I actually never had thought about that.
Interestingly it happens a lot in many parts of business, when we’re going into a deep analysis or thinking process and start lacking the global ‘helicopter’ or ‘roadmap’ view.
When someone pulls our nose off it, we start seing the bigger picture and say “Oh well, of course, why did I focus just on this particular city?”.
So point taken, it makes sense.
I’ll actually try developing my other form of thinking although I don’t really know how that would be correct.
When we’re unsure about things, we either ask someone else or start making some calculations, that’s the state I am in right now.
So if I start developing my own critical thinking :
Flop
I actually like a bet from my part way more than if I was open raising from UTG/MP and BB called. On this second scenario I think BB would have a clearer range advantage on this board.
Here we’re on a situation where opponent limped on CO making him a passive and probably loose player that splits his range into good raising hands and parts that he limps that are probably made of weak / high and medium disconnected cards and that he doesn’t know what to do with, but connected, suited or high enough (according to him) that he plays them anyway. I confirmed that at showdown (since he called river with a holding that was apparently indifferent to the fact that straights and sets were here, making me question my barrels and river bluff in the first place).
The board is medium / light semi-dry and I have one BD flush draw (the fact that it is the third nut FD is probably not that important heads-up?), an OESD and two overs that don’t complete draws, which is important.
So overall I think betting make sense and your comment gives me confidence now as well (of course it’s easier when Phil said it, yes I know).
Turn
I also stand with what I did during the hand and given your commentary, once I bet the flop and the SPR shrinks at this level below 1.7, I saw the Kd as a great semi-buffing opportunity (although the Ad would be better as it hits my range a lot more) and provides me more outs.
Perhaps if I changed the sizings (betting 45-50% pot on turn), it would give opponent slightly worse odds on the river over my shove?
River
By betting twice on the larger side we’re representing either good AA combos with diamonds, top two, top and middle set, and wraps.
When this river hits we either have a lot of two pairs, some sets and a lot of straights.
I’m sticking with a shove as we have almost zero equity at showdown.
We’re representing straights, big sets (88, KK), and top two pair.
So here we either give up with a <5% equity hand or bluff with it representing value combos.
I think any ‘decent’ opponent that had played some PLO would fold at least anything but two pair K3 and more.
Does it even make sense for him to have the bottom of his calling range at K3+?
I’m starting my own critical thinking outside the math, I don’t know what it is worth yet and how I should structure it :-)
Let me know what you think.
Again thank you for the help, I’m starting to see a more accurate picture of the golf course, hand by hand, and this makes a lot of sense.
Readless I like a bet on the flop some of the time.
Fwiw, just like Phil said, there are very few draws that have an equity edge against a continuing range especially on the turn and this should not be the deciding factor in a bet-or-check conundrum. Factors that you could consider when deciding whether bet your draw or take a free card:
Fold equity
Passive opponent response rather than aggressive (our EV is higher when we bet a draw that has to fold to a big raise if our opponent responds by calling rather than raising allowing us to realize our equity albeit for a price)
Number of outs
Number of nut outs
Ability to represent strong made hands or other completed draws on the next street (blockers and potential future blockers are key here)
The frequency that our opponent pays off a bet if we complete our draw
The frequency that our opponent are able to "steal equity" from us on future streets (if villain can donk a lot of rivers with a balanced range thereby bluffing us off a turned straight for example when a flush comes in some of the time may make us want to choose to not build a pot with a flopped straight draw even with something "strong" like a nut wrap. Again, the more passive his response in general to our semi-bluffs, the better)
On the river we are likely up against a weaker player (an assumption based on him posting in the CO. His stack size also makes it unlikely that he's a strong player but he could obv be employing a similar stop loss strategy or be a very solid short stacker with unreliable mis-clicking hands)
We only need about 23% fold equity on the river for our bluff to be profitable. Its not ideal to block the FD here as most other draws now have a straight or 2p. In my experience these players come in two types A) they fold everything but K3+ like you said bc it looks like you probably have that beat which makes us wanna bluff or B) SPR is under 0.5 "there's hardly anything left, I call with all 2 pairs" which makes it closer but I think it's still worth it to bluff here until villain is a proven station/ hero caller
Most players would donk all in with their rivered straights, and a lot of ppl would x-r ai on the turn with turned Kings up (at least the better kings up, or kings up+draw like K3+GS) so with this excellent risk-reward ratio I would happily bluff ai otr.
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