PL200 - QJ97ds 3barrel shove
Posted by Bluechip
Posted by Bluechip posted in Mid Stakes
PL200 - QJ97ds 3barrel shove
CO: $160.00
BN: $129.97 (Hero)
SB: $171.70
BB: $128.82
Hi guys!
Here's a key hand I played in my last session where I'd like some feedback.
The reason I'm not fullstacked is because of a stop loss limit I've set up. We're playing anonymous tables so no stats on our opponent.
Preflop seems fine to me to raise over CO limp with a hand that is very smooth, double suited and connected.
Flop
- I'm flopping an 8-out open ender with 2 overs.
- SPR is 4
- Given the preflop action, the CO should have a range advantage here
- My range is more weighted towards high pairs and high cards
- I think I have a great hand for checking back rather than betting. This hand is not strong enough to continue against a check raise, and has many good runouts (5,Y,7,9,J,Q, diamond)
When Opponent calls my Cbet, I think his check/calling range is mostly 99-KK, any open ender except the top wrap T97 and any bare 8 or 6.
I'm actually behind this range at 41%, which .leans toward checking it back
Turn
- The Kd turn gives me the 3rd nut flush draw with my OESD which gives me at best 9 outs to a the 3rd nut flush.
- SPR = 1.65
- I have 6 outs to the nuts (5, T with no diamond), and 9 outs to the 3rd nut flush.
- Given the very low SPR, I believe I should now bet / calling it off
- I have Opponent check/calling me with K:dd,Add,57+:dd,86,K8,83. I don't think they can fold the nut flush draw at these stakes, and I think they would play passively with these hands.
I'm not quite sure how to proceed here. Is checking back a better move? Given the low SPR it seems to me that bet/commiting is a better play, but I seem to be having a very low equity against the range that is calling me given my assumptions.
River
- The Flush missed, straights are possible with 45, 59, 9T
- I have blockers to some straights
- I basically have no showdown value with 4th pair (as confirmed in the ´share’ EV of checking of barely $2,8.
- I also have very little fold equity when shoving 50 into 171
When using the stack off range module assuming he stacks off with any two pair K3+ and straights, it seems shoving is highly profitable even given the low SPR.
Overall I think I should just check back the flop and turn.
What are your thoughts about this one?
Thanks for your feedback!
Guillaume
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