PLO200 HU River betsize?
Posted by spartacus87
Posted by
spartacus87
posted in
Mid Stakes
PLO200 HU River betsize?
Villian was a big fish. He 3bets 50% oop and cbets only 17% rr flop. He c/c about 80% of the rr flops. So he has a wide range for calling flops and also turns. He only c/r flops 3% in general.
Turn : I think the best vacuum play vs this fish is to bet/fold, as he will call a WIDE RANGE, but only cr AQ here. I know it seems very weak especially with the turned weak FD, but i think there are better spots vs these villians.
River: I think i would prefer to bet/fold about ~115 here. Do u think Villians are capable to bluff c/r vs this half pot sizing in such a big pot? Because this would make this Play very very bad.
In general , do u bet this river without the 9 high Flush, as we can rule out AQ here?
If not, is it a good bluff card, as we fold out anything else, besides a backdoor Flush ?
Loading 6 Comments...
np wp.
I'm probably checking river behind without making the flush.
Not a good bluff card, I think villain probably looks you up wide as fish tend to not believe 3 street lines where the board texture constantly changes.
Nh.
I get called so wide on this run-off so no I don't expect it to be a good bluff spot.
It's fair to assume he doesn't have AQ. He probably also doesn't have a set. (any set would bet the flop, and KK would also bet the flop I'd imagine) So what does he have? He could have a naked spade draw without anything else (with anything to go with it he'd either bet or c/r flop). Otherwise, the only thing that really makes sense is that he has a weak pair and a heart draw. What else would he be calling the turn with?
This means that:
a) He either has just a missed spade draw on the river, and can't call.
b) He has now made his backdoor flush on the river, and it's very likely it's bigger than yours.
c) He must assume that by betting turn and river you have at least a straight.
To me, this means that the river bet is very thin. Especially betting 3/4 pot, I think you ensure that you will fold out just about all worse hands, and get called only by better. Betting smaller in this spot would be better I think. A smaller river bet might be slightly +EV, but I don't think you should expect it to be a fist pumpby any means. Even assuming he calls with all flushes, there are 3 smaller flushes and 4 bigger flushes. So for the river bet to be profitable you must assume that he also calls with some hands that aren't flushes and aren't straights. If you have that read on him then fine, but otherwise I think the river bet is fairly marginal and I certainly wouldn't bet a straight in this spot.
Looks good to me on all streets. Your street-by-street breakdown is exactly what I'd be thinking with those reads. I think river sizing is perfect against such a player who never check-raises and calls wide.
results ? :)
he called with As6sKdJh :)
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