PLO200 - fullhouse getting raised on the river unexpectedly
Posted by Ibra Cadabra
Posted by
Ibra Cadabra
posted in
Mid Stakes
PLO200 - fullhouse getting raised on the river unexpectedly
CO: $190.07
BN: $322.28
SB: $230.10
BB: $128.71
UTG: $147.23
Villain is a tough regular playing 35/20/8.6 over 2.2k hands and some post-flop stats (single-raised pots) are: fold/call/raise vs. c-bet 63/13/25 (out of 32). Overall AF 3.0 and A% by street 36/30/20. Sometimes I see him do things I would rate as spewy, but that mostly concerns pre-flop (calling trashy pocket pairs, calling trashy hands vs. 3-bets, and 3-b and 4-b a bit spewy). Overall he calls a ton on the BTN (for example, he only folds 51% vs. CO steals). Post-flop though I feel like his thought-processes, lines, and hand-reading are all very good. Something that may be important to determine his pre-flop range is that there are two big fishes at the table (UTG and BB).
I think anyone can see the problem I have with his river raise. "Normal" reasoning would suggest he can't have much of a hand after checking back the turn. Imo either air, or like a (nut) flush he was semi-bluffing with, which is why I bet only halfish otr. Given my read on his skills though, I find it highly unlikely that he would pull a somewhat random bluff here. (The only thing I can think of is that he sees my bet, and in the heat of the moment thinks "that's a weak/scared looking block-bet by a hand like AAhh or 8x, so I'll raise".)
So yeah obviously my question is, what do you guys think I should do on the river? But it also got me thinking... how good/bad would his play be with TT/T8? Because after thinking about it for a while, I realized that this is usually a spot where you bluff-raise one-and-done, so I guess for range-balancing purposes checking back TT/T8 wouldn't actually be so crazy. Plus it's deceptive! Lastly: is there any merit to any other play on the flop than c-betting? Given how we're somewhat deep and he seems to give people a tough time when he's IP by raising against c-bets frequently. I guess not, my hand needs protection on this board, right?
Any thoughts appreciated, I think it's an interesting hand, hopefully so do you.
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Hi,
Generally speaking, I think that the nut flush is not even a part of his range here. If the flush had hit on the turn it would be a small possibility but no decent opponent is going to barrel that here. That leaves us with a few possibilities that should mostly be dependent on your play history. By the implications of your considerations, you might be betting or raising a flush? If this is the case then that does expand his range to air but I still v much doubt a bet with any flush from our opponent, if he was going to make such a play sensibly, he always does so on the turn anyway. 99 with the nfd is also a possibility but again, unlikely to even raise on the flop, and with the t out there then 99 is a tiny part of his range unless combined with an 8, far more likely he is playing either 89 xx 8txx or 89xx, given the turn check, I think that 89xx is v likely but but check rr tt or t8 with pos is not an unusual play at all, though most opponents have sucked out to spiked overpairs enough to generally feel compelled to bet even tt on the turn. Even 86xx, 8txx or dare I say it 99xx. All accounted I think that this should be a very difficult fold but therefore a very good one.
If you think your opponent pays attention to your play, assume that he has a decent read on you here, bear in mind that blockers do not operate in this situation, does he think that he will fold you off of the hand you have, enough of the time to make it profitable, or do you have enough history and play enough for him to not mind being caught out by the weaker end of you range because he will expect looser calls later on?
In a vacume, you give your opponent a huge amount of credit, or very little at all to expect a shove with anything but a fh house here, if we assume that he has one 90% of the time, and that only two of the combos (split so *0.5 is 1) split the pot (again he is unlikely to raise these) you have his bluff % vs your the whopping 20/1 houses that beat you.
Fold.
I would fold. Looks a lot like either J99 /997 that binked the river or as u mentioned yourself a slowplayed bigger boat. But not a good spot for him to bluff since ur range is uncapped and very strong, even with the small betsizing.
its not a line people bluff with but given your description this is the type of guy I call down here. Fwiw your hand is a better over limp than an iso, and I lean toward jamming flop since there are so many draws. Maybe I would flat that flop raise with 8T (maybe TT but not sure) or a weak 8 that has an fd as well. Tough hand tho...don't fault your fold.
Agree on pre, thx for that! Regarding jamming the flop... don't you think that would be over playing the hand a bit (at 150bb)? Feel like only hands that beat me (and have me basically drawing dead) will gii, while all worse hands probably fold. So it would solely be for protection purposes?
that makes me rethink stuff a little, ty for pointing that out. Still think i jam trips w the A kicker vs described villain.
Hi ibra - Looks to me like J99x play here. Possibly J and 9 of hearts which would make sense with flop raise. I cant see a jam here with worse than a bigger boat. Not sure i bet river after not betting turn. What calls your river bet ... Ace Flush? Lone 8 ? Check call here limits your risk and still entices poor hands to bluff at you.
Yeah basically only flushes... Felt like he wouldn't bet those himself, and like he would rarely bluff, hence the bet.
looking back at this hand, I do a lot of things differently now. I cbet small, like 1/3 and I lean toward a small rr on flop given description of villain. As played man I don't think you have to call, but I still do. He is kinda crazy, your bet looks weak, and I expect him to keep going with boats on the turn to get value. Idk its still really close tho. Only reason I think about calling is cuz he is a nut and you bet small. But you do have enough stronger hands to let this one go.
This is a hand that can do very well in a flop checking range, particularly since you very rarely are going to want to bet 3 streets for value with it. This is primarily due to two reasons: (1) how the board runs out and (2) how villain's range will continually narrow and strengthen as you bet. I'd imagine that you over c-bet when out of position, and have overly weak checking ranges. I can't say that for sure of course, but it'd be something that I'd pay attention to if I was at the table with you and saw you play this hand.
As played, river is a bet/fold.
check flop? noooooo. wtf, then what do you bet? bet turn, why check turn? river is a fold unless you have history.
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