check raise the turn. You dont get paid if diamond drops and have fold equity against his C bet Turn. If he has a straight you still have circa 30% equity

Why not check-call turn? Seems like the natural play when we have good-not-great showdown value and outs to the nuts.

Not sure how he can raise pre to $9 not $7, maybe this was with antes or a dead post?

I don't think he should barrel a lot on this turn vs. your flop x/c range, so when you do face a bet it's gonna be a pretty strong range. Also when there are 2 flush draws on the board, people don't like to bet/fold very often. So the choice is between x/c and lead, to me it seems.

Problem with leading is that he can peel a lot and we won't have a good visibility on most rivers. So we'll have to check a lot on the river, and mostly to check fold. And when we don't check, our range is kind of transparent and we won't have much implied odds.

Let's say, if the betting ends on turn and the river checks through, or we don't get to the river, then leading is probably fine. With one more card and at least one more betting to come though, I'd be much more inclined to check (and call).

-- midori

My first time posting in threads, so any comments or feedback welcomed...

My plan here at each of the decision points here is best approached by process of elimination:

1) Preflop - As Midori points out, there must be dead money in the pot for his raise to be to $9. At first glance it makes this PF spot more awkward...but the odds on your call remain the same here (2:1). Had it been $5 to call into a pot of $10, this suited ace hand seems to me a mandatory call, even with the ragginess of the hand. The SPR does decrease as a result of the pot size, but not so drastically that it changes the value of this hand here. All said, I eliiminate fold as a shade too tight. I think it is a +EV call, even against a reg (and definitely against a weaker player.)

2) Flop - One option not yet discussed is to donk flop. Because your range can have a reasonable amount of 2pr, sets, gutters and combo draws, I think it needs to be on the table for this somewhat dynamic flop. So options are:

X/r - As you have said already, I eliminate this as too aggressive for your holding and likely -EV as most worse hands fold, most better hands continue. Save this for some sets and high equity semi-bluffs, mainly.

X/c - Def a reasonable play, but as you may now guess, I think second best, since your hand is so vulnerable. Top and bottom pair with backdoor nut draw has a fair amount of equity in this pot against villain's opening range, but a lot of turn cards can queer your equity...raising is too optimistic, but X/c'ing does nothing to protect your equity. Much depends on your plan for the turn, but as you have pointed out, many turns (including this one) are uncomfortable for similar reasons of balancing protection and equity realization. X/x is kind of a nightmare for top/bttm pair. All in all, X/c is reasonable here and the most obvious choice...but...

Le Donk - I am no expert on the matter and I'd love more threads to discuss donking in general...but one principal to put out there is that (GTO) appropriate spots to donk flop arise much more often than good spots for donking turns. Most players donk flops too little - your range can frequently improve with 3 new cards, and protection benefits many holdings that do not want to X/r (ie this holding). Remeber, whether you have the lead or not, the point of leading out any street is to make the most of a polarized range. A turn brings only 1 new card, so it is more rare that oop's condensed flop X/c range has improved so significantly that it polarizes and leading makes sense. To me, this flop seems a good candidate to donk a reasonable amount (Maybe 5-7% of range? Ranges are wide here, so even that's a fair number of combos). I say our hand falls squarely in our value-donk range. Some 2pr's and lower sets that have some additional equity (ie backdoor nut flush draw) but are vulnerable in general. I'd prob balance this with some combo semi-bluffs, like 3-4-7-8 with two clubs...hands with enough equity to want to continue, but that are pleased to win uncontested.
I would say the plan here is to bet out and call when raised, then evaluate turns. Bet/fold seems far too tight, especially since many regs raise donks far too widely thinking they are exploiting weak ranges. As to sizing, I'd say 2/3 pot accomplishes most goals of max value and protection on this board. I could be sold on 1/2 pot, but it seems a shade too small on a board this dynamic.

Okay... that said, you didnt lead the flop, and (reasonably) took the X/c line. So the turn options following X/c are:

X/r - Not a terrible idea, given the added nut draw...but when you are called, you probably have only 9 outs to the flush, as top-bottom 2pr is so rarely ahead in that case.

X/c - I agree with most of the previously made points on this. The passive line has many drawbacks here...but with the nut draw, I think this line makes the most sense, given how we got here. 2pr may well be ahead right now, and 11 cards give you well-hidden, nutty hands on the river. Playing river oop if you dont improve will suck a reasonable amount...but all in all, after x/c'ing flop, i think this is a wise play.

X/f - Obviously feels too tight here. If he full pots, you are getting close to pot-committed, so that's just an icky spot. (an argument for donking flop...you get to lead turns like this one and not yet be pot-committed, since you control bet sizing)

Donk turn - Question: has the 5d strongly improved your range, making your previously condensed range more polar? Nah. It's a dynamic card, but both player's overall ranges remained similar (or so says me). Leading here is why they call it donking...firing scared money into the pot with a condensed/middling range...asking to get exploited. Giving villain the opportunity to play perfectly. I eliminate donking turn.

I will conclude with 2 more general thoughts about this hand (which I found to be very interesting and is a spot that can occur somewhat frequently).

1) Most of these decisions are somewhat close. Is folding preflop a costly error? Prob not, especially with the unusual pot size. Is donking flop far different EV than X/c? Nah. Both seem profitable choices and the difference is prob small. BUT

2) A wiser writer than me (Will Tipton) points out that a great reason for choosing any action at any point, is that it will bring your opponent to a region of the game tree where they do not play well. i.e. Many/most players at med stakes play poorly against well-balanced donk ranges. They mistakenly think the play must be highly exploitable and make wild adjustments to their usually-solid gameplay. I think donking here is possibly the "best" choice regardless...but add the high likelihood that your opponent will make more mistakes when you lead the flop, and I think it becomes a clear winner, imho.

I am not an expert on this complex matter, so if someone sees any major flaws in my analysis, don't hold back! I'd love to learn more about such things...that's why I'm up at 6:30am typing a bunch of nerdy crap ��

cool reply RSF but I would disagree that donking turn is bad, Card should favour us quite a bit as we have more 43xx and not allowing draws for a free turn is quite big. This hand imo suits well for donking turn as we certainly are ahead of villains range + we have a redraw.

We don't have more 43xx than a btn opening range, we also don't have any 3 or 4 blockers, check/call turn.