PLO100z - Bluff this river vs 2 players?

Posted by bdon22

Posted by bdon22 posted in Low Stakes

Posted 8 years, 5 months ago

PLO100z - Bluff this river vs 2 players?

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $244.06
SB: $103.73
BB: $133.37
UTG: $60.04
MP: $95.52
CO: $157.22 (Hero)

Preflop ($1.50) Hero is CO with 7 6 2 A

UTG raises to $2.30, MP folds, Hero calls $2.30, 2 folds, BB calls $1.30

UTG appears to be a fish due to stack size and stats of 75/75 over 4 hands. All 3 players to act behind me have a combined squeeze of 2% so I have a pretty easy call/fold if they do.
BB I have no reads on but is playing 17/0 over 6 hands so pretty irrelevant.

Flop ($7.40) K 5 3

BB checks, UTG bets $4.07, Hero calls $4.07, BB calls $4.07

Gutshot to the nuts and lots of backdoor equity so I decided to float here given the small bet size.

Turn ($19.61) K 5 3 Q

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $14.50, BB calls $14.50, UTG calls $14.50

Good card to bluff since I pick up some more nut equity and the Qh is also good for my two pair broadway flatting range pre-flop. I would expect a lot of hands to check/fold now like naked KJ, etc. Also naked low straight draws might fold without a heart re-draw.

River ($63.11) K 5 3 Q J

BB checks, UTG checks

Got called by both players... I think this is a pretty interesting river card in that it gives both of them a lot of two pair or weak broadway straights.

Still, it's possible both players have a lot of busted draws as well, and BB might face a difficult call with 2 pair and UTG still left to act if I bet at least 2/3 pot.

Stone bottom of my range... do I bluff vs 2 players here?

4 Comments

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SeacombePLO 8 years, 5 months ago

I think I play this differently on every street

I fold pre, he's short stacked so raw equity becomes more important than playability and our raw equity is quite bad. OTF multiway I fold, we have 4 outs and guy behind us can still be squeezing, we have much less in the way of implied odds because he's short and we block the worse straight. OTT we have nearly zero fold equity, almost both of their entire range either just improved to two pair or picked up a draw and our hand doesn't really want to bloat the pot atm, one of them floats I'm guessing an awful lot of the time (would have to look at PJ to know more). I don't think river is a particularly good spot to bluff as we've labelled UTG as fish and don't see why we expect him to be making snug folds with two pair here, we don't block T which is much more significant than blocking A imo because I don't think T9 is going to fold much. We also block heart draws and low straight draw combos pretty significantly so it makes it less likely they've missed everything

Phil Galfond 8 years, 5 months ago

I am cool with the preflop call, but only because of the very low squeeze frequency behind you.

Flop I would fold. It's just not enough of a hand to fight with in a 3 way pot against a short stack. Raising would be an okay play if he were deeper.

The turn bet I actually like. The BB can peel pre with a lot of disconnected hands, so this Q isn't as good a card for him as it would be if he called from the SB or CO. Since he can fold some weak Kx or 765 type stuff, and the UTG player checked with a relatively short stack, I think you pick up the pot often enough to make this +EV.

River i would give up. When UTG goes from betting to x/c and you have the NFD, it's pretty likely he picked up a straight draw on the turn. The same is true of the BB once he continues again. At best, you're looking to make someone fold Kings up which is certainly not a given.

Stone bottom of my range...

This is one of those cases that I talk about in my videos a lot. It doesn't matter that you're at the stone bottom of your range. 5x is never good here, Jx is never good here, Qx is basically never good here. Ace high = JTxx except that JTxx is a much better blocker hand to bluff with because you block some rivered straights and rivered two pair.

Your hand has blockers to their folding range (hearts AND low straight cards) and therefore makes for a really poor bluffing hand. Don't get caught up in worrying about having no pair here - a bluff would be a big mistake IMO.