PLO100 Zoom : trying to do some rough math here
Posted by Runlikegod
Posted by Runlikegod posted in Mid Stakes
PLO100 Zoom : trying to do some rough math here
SB: $172.65
BB: $50
UTG: $351.21 (Hero)
HJ: $160.39
CO: $112.68
Hero raises to $3.50, HJ calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2.50
Hi there,
this (on the second look) interesting spot appeared in my session today, and I would like to hear your opinion about it.
I think so far hand has played out fairly standard, I was debating sizing on the flop thinking about going bigger, but then still went for my custom % button.
Talking ranges:
HJ is a tight, but decently playing regular on a low sample (16/12/300h) who I haven't seen making many mistakes yet. We are over 150bb effective OTF, which makes the hand actually interesting in my eyes.
CO is an unknown player running 24/12 over 25hands, so my assumption is that he is not playing way off, but the fact that he is an unknown at zoom for me makes it unlikely that he has balanced or even good ranges in most spots. However I don't expect him to spazz out much.
Let's make following range assumptions:
Because of timing and to simplify the spot I would like to give CO only KK**, as I also can't make any assumptions of him playing 88** or any other hands and if so the flop reshove would be always profitable unless HJ traps KK+sd.
Here are the ranges I gave both players to go with after we reshove:
Now the interesting point of the hand actually kicks in, as we are 110bb deep with the CO but 157bb deep with the HJ OTF, and while being somewhat crushed by one range we dominate the other one by a decent amount.
Running some sims:
Mainpot
Sidepot
Potsizes after reshove + 2calls pre rake:
MainPot:342,02 SidePot:95,42
The propably most simple step left, being calculating the EV of the stackoff is the one I'm strugling the most with and would appreciate your help here. Also if you think some of the assumptions or ranges are wrong feel free to correct me :) Cheers
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