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PLO100 Zoom : trying to do some rough math here

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

PLO100 Zoom : trying to do some rough math here

BN: $213.94
SB: $172.65
BB: $50
UTG: $351.21 (Hero)
HJ: $160.39
CO: $112.68
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T 9 9 J
Hero raises to $3.50, HJ calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2.50
Flop ($14.50) K 8 9 (4 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10.11, HJ calls $10.11, CO raises to $54.29, BB folds

Hi there,

this (on the second look) interesting spot appeared in my session today, and I would like to hear your opinion about it.


I think so far hand has played out fairly standard, I was debating sizing on the flop thinking about going bigger, but then still went for my custom % button.

Talking ranges:

HJ is a tight, but decently playing regular on a low sample (16/12/300h) who I haven't seen making many mistakes yet. We are over 150bb effective OTF, which makes the hand actually interesting in my eyes.

CO is an unknown player running 24/12 over 25hands, so my assumption is that he is not playing way off, but the fact that he is an unknown at zoom for me makes it unlikely that he has balanced or even good ranges in most spots. However I don't expect him to spazz out much.


Let's make following range assumptions:

Because of timing and to simplify the spot I would like to give CO only KK**, as I also can't make any assumptions of him playing 88** or any other hands and if so the flop reshove would be always profitable unless HJ traps KK+sd.


Here are the ranges I gave both players to go with after we reshove:

It's propably possible to make HJ's range more exact when it comes to combos but I think equity differences are being so small that it is not that important.


Now the interesting point of the hand actually kicks in, as we are 110bb deep with the CO but 157bb deep  with the HJ OTF, and while being somewhat crushed by one range we dominate the other one by a decent amount.

Running some sims:

Mainpot

Sidepot

Potsizes after reshove + 2calls pre rake:

MainPot:342,02 SidePot:95,42

The propably most simple step left, being calculating the EV of the stackoff is the one I'm strugling the most with and would appreciate your help here. Also if you think some of the assumptions or ranges are wrong feel free to correct me :) Cheers

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