PLO100 zoom. tp+ 2nd nfd
Posted by Haru
Posted by
Haru
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO100 zoom. tp+ 2nd nfd
BN: $154.89
SB: $101.50
BB: $395.70
UTG: $43.96
HJ: $100 (Hero)
CO: $107.54
SB: $101.50
BB: $395.70
UTG: $43.96
HJ: $100 (Hero)
CO: $107.54
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
T
K
Q
9
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($7.50)
5
Q
3
(2 Players)
Hero bets $5.15,
CO raises to $22.61,
Hero calls $17.46
Turn
($52.72)
5
Q
3
8
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $50.35
No reads. How do we play otf once we got raised?
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Hmm, I don't think the flop call once we get raised is a good way to go. Before I bet the flop I would consider what to do if we get raised and I really don't think calling would be an option, for me at least. When we get raised I would either fold or gii as the SPR gets too low when a brick turn hits. (hope I'm using SPR correctly here as I have only recently begun to dig in to the hand analyzing part of poker:-)) Another option could be to X/C flop or if you are playing an aggressive villain who probe bets a lot maybe X/R the flop. All of this to say that calling the flop raise gets us into an ugly turn situation where he has all the momentum if a brick hits.
i just stick it in otf w/o reads
Off the top of my head, I'd either b/c or x/c on the flop but tbh I wouldn't surprised if b/f is superior to b/c. Getting it in on flop seems a costly mistake to me.
Is this to say that you would b/c like this and then just fold turn when unimproved? Would we not be rather exploitable then? I agree that getting it in on the flop could be costly, but I really dislike the b/c option. Like I wrote earlier I would like some stats and I see the other hand Haru posted has stats?
If you assume he has only sets in his range and no bluffs you won't be exploited by calling since you have enough equity to call his raise. If he has wide raising range you can check call almost any unpaired turn. I doubt unknown villain will try to exploit your b/c range OTF without any reads.
Railing Phil right now, but I will elaborate on this in a couple hours. :)
Alright, so here are my thoughts on the flop play.
When I am facing a flop c-bet decision OOP, I mainly consider two things:
a) Is my hand (or range) ahead of his range on flop? If so, by how much?
b) Can my hand (or range) improve on enough turns so that I can double barrel?
If the answer to both questions are yes, I opt to bet the flop. If the answer is no to both, I opt to check-decide, mostly check/fold. If the answer is yes/no or no/yes, I tend to check/call or check/fold, depending on various things.
Now back to the flop, I believe our hand is quite ahead of villain's preflop range, which should look like $fi20!$3b6i. Against that range we have ~70%, so yeah, it seems like we are quite ahead of his range on flop.
The next question is, can we improve on many turn cards? We can answer this by using the "equity breakdown" feature of PPT, but roughly speaking, it seems like we can barrel on any cards 8/9 or higher as well as spades, and 5/3 aren't that bad either. 7/6/4/2 seem bad cards. This means we can continue barreling on about 2/3 of turn cards, either because it helps our hand or our range (most likely the former in this spot).
Another consideration though, which I think is the reason why some people try to put this hand into a x/c range, is how often we are gonna get raised on flop, and what we should do if that happens. Well, if I had to guess, his raising range on this flop should look like {sets, Q5, 53+draws} and maybe some KK like KK74ss (but these are few combos anyway). This makes up about 10% of his overall range of $fi20!$3b6i. Thus, I don't think we need to worry too much about getting raised, because it's not gonna happen all that often. If it does though, we will have to deal with it.All in all, flop c-bet seems standard and good to me. And to our surprise, he raises. Now what do we do?
(To be continued..)
Once he reraised us otf, I thought he could also have nfd+backup(64+,Q+). If his range doesn't include such range, we should not be folding vs his raise caz we obv have enough equity to continue. Though I included those hands into his range and I was confused how to continue vs {sets,Q5,2p+draws,nfd+backups}.
Here is our flop equity vs certain ranges.
30.76% vs QQ
43.60% vs QQ, Q5,55,33
45.24% vs QQ,55,33,Q5,(Q5,Q3,53):(ss,64,42)
43.44% vs QQ,55,33,Q5,(Q5,Q3,53):(ss,64,42),ss:As:(Q,5,3,64,42)
so..getting it in otf is no good.
hope this helps.
btw, I think flop cbet is totally fine as midori mentioned.
Oh well, I said tbc and didn't really follow up. Anyway, I think this is a standard c-bet, and when we get raise we might have to fold, although that feels kinda dirty. Still, I don't expect to get raised very often to put this into a x/c range, although that's not a bad strategy either.
If we are folding to a raise, are we folding AKQJss(tp+nfd) as well? with what hands do you continue?
Haru, I would not fold AKQJss. In my opinion the nfd gives us a ´good to go´hand. This hand for me though would be a good candidate to x/r the flop. It balances your checking range so that villains will not just relentlessly bet, when you check a flop as IR.
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