PLO100: Turn decision
Posted by Virtual_fight
Posted by
Virtual_fight
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO100: Turn decision
SB: $160.72 (160.7 bb)
BB: $32.75 (32.8 bb)
MP: $89.40 (89.4 bb)
CO: $119.45 (119.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $100 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7h 9h 9s Ts
MP folds, CO raises to $3, Hero raises to $10.50, 2 folds, CO calls $7.50
Flop: ($22.50) 6h Qs Th (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($22.50) 5s (2 players)
CO bets $22.50, Hero raises to $89.50 and is all-in, CO calls $67
River: ($201.50) Ah (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Final Board: 6h Qs Th 5s Ah
CO showed Jd Tc 8c Td and lost (-$100 net)
Hero showed 7h 9h 9s Ts and won $198.50 ($98.50 net)
I decided to shove the turn but I think calling would probably be better because villain is potting the turn. I don't expect villain folds that often. My worry is that villain is barreling ton of the blank rivers and I have to fold. But I guess that is not enough for an argument.
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I like the shove. If he folds anything it will be a +EV play. Although if he is just pot leading a strong range and never folding, which is possible, you are losing a couple BBs. I agree that calling and playing the river would be pretty much impossible.
I didnt bet the flop because it is very close if I can call the shove. I can be terrible shape. By checking the flop I can realize my equity.
Not really unless you run into set + better flushdraw or wrap with flushdraw. And against these hands, shoving turn has the same effect.
I think that on the turn there is a difference if Villain is having folding range. But like I said that is quite rare and calling IMO is better. I think that bet calling the flop is winning play but is it most profitable not still sure because when we face the shove we are rarely favorite.
After thinking this hand for more carefully calling the turn is probably better because of the implied odds. IMO if we hit on the river (str or flush) and villain checks we can shove comfortably. IMO we will get often bluff catch call on the river because there are so much we could have missed. If we hit the flush on the river and villain shoves we pretty much have to navigate correctly. IMO it is not bad play generally to take the call if flush hits and we face shove. Villain could be river bluffing some missed draws but depends on the villain for sure.
I'm still not sure. If you want to give me his turn leading and stackoff range I'll calculate the ev if you would like.
Turn bet in this spot is 31pct. Unfortunately I can not find stack off range.
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