Plo100: Possibly Over Elaborate Plan Goes Awry

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Plo100: Possibly Over Elaborate Plan Goes Awry

BN: $114.99
SB: $105.05
BB: $120.66 (Hero)
UTG: $24.75
HJ: $94.25
CO: $117.27
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K J K 8
UTG raises to $2.77, HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls $2.77, SB calls $2.27, Hero raises to $12, UTG calls $9.23, BN folds, SB raises to $50.77, Hero calls $38.77, UTG calls $12.75, and is all in
Flop ($132.83) Q 5 6 (3 Players)
SB bets $54.28, and is all in, Hero folds
Pf I 3b enough so that the shorty can reshove get 2 weak calls and I can repot in their wee faces. Is this type of thinking reliant on too many factors for success and I should just take the great pot odds and flat pre?

As played: SB has shown that he slowplayed teh AAxx pre. It's standard to call the 4bet and fold the flop no?

2 Comments

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Tom Coldwell 12 years ago
I very much like sizing the 3-bet here so that that shorty can shove over the opener's flat and we can therefore re-jam. However, once UTG 4-bets you kinda have to muck if you think he's not gonna be light here (ie this is AA** always). By calling, you're getting yourself into a spot where you'll have to stack off any flop where you think you have 22.5% equity which, versus a range of AA**, will happen 55% of the time (note that on average you will only be getting it in around 35%). The other 45% you'll be giving up your money by folding (obv). I won't write all the calcs out here, but there are a couple of things you need to know about them:

1) Even the flops you call end up costing you money in total (you lose, on average, nearly $11 in the pots you call pre/call flop).

2) Overall, this means your average result on that call is -$23.50 which is pretty f***ing atrocious. This is using the favourable, not to mention completely untrue assumption that SB will never win his part of the pot (further damaging how you do the times you call).

So yeah, the 3-bet I liked, the sizing I really liked, but sadly the call of the 4-bet is horrible (assuming you think villain has AA** nearly always. If you don't think that, then 5-bet jam or, if you somehow clicked call, call this flop).
plodojo 12 years ago
Thanks a bunch. Plo math isn't my strongest area. How does one go about doing what you did on my own?

Thanks

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