PLO100 - HU IP 2nd barrel decision w/ weak two pair + nfd SPR ~5.5
Posted by Ibra Cadabra
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Ibra Cadabra
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Low Stakes
PLO100 - HU IP 2nd barrel decision w/ weak two pair + nfd SPR ~5.5
CO: $251.37
BN: $180.50
SB: $178.62
BB: $100.00
Villain is a regular who doesn't defend his BB nearly as wide as most regulars. Seems to be a bit on the tighter side overall (25/13 and 3-bet 5,4%). No relevant reads. No stats that are out of line. Maybe not too interesting of a hand, but this is a recurring theme for me. On the one hand I'm thinking I don't want to give away a free card, and thus bet for protection, and at the same time build the pot in case I improve on the river. On the other hand getting c/r would suck real hard. I might end up all-in in pretty bad shape against QT+ or I might end up folding by far the best hand against a semi-bluff. Not to mention river play. Whether I check-back, or bet and get called, in both cases I would hate facing a bet most of the time (unimproved that is).
Maybe I should've anticipated this turn difficulty? I mean, besides turning a T, 6 or A, I won't have top two anymore, or a straight will be present.
Really hoping someone can enlighten me, or direct me to a place, or video, or piece of literature that can help me improve my turn play with regards to these medium-SPR-middle-part-of-my-range-situations.
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I say you should bet it. While he could have slow played you with a set or turned queens up both of these seem like less likely scenarios than him having a wrap, or bottom two or some other hand that is in bad shape against you. If (and note I say, I am not prepared at this point to hazard a guess as to the actual frequency) we can conclude that him having QT+ is say 15% and him having a weaker hand than you is 85% we should make our choice based on the more likely possibility.
Makes sense. Myb I'm just overly afraid of getting c/r and biased by a few unfortunate experiences.
Forgetting this hand for a moment, experience in poker is a very poor teacher. Poker strategy is really more of an a priori science.
I d bet this turn very often with this hand included. Exploitatively there are some overaggro guys who float flop too light and when turn goes check chck they bluff a lot then this Line may be More +ev
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