PLO100: Bluff gone wrong
Posted by Joe Sham
Posted by
Joe Sham
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO100: Bluff gone wrong
BN: $131.32
SB: $66.24
BB: $177.28 (Hero)
UTG: $330.82
HJ: $202.39
CO: $84.70
SB: $66.24
BB: $177.28 (Hero)
UTG: $330.82
HJ: $202.39
CO: $84.70
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
8
A
J
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $2.24, SB folds, Hero raises to $7.22, BN calls $4.98
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $2.24, SB folds, Hero raises to $7.22, BN calls $4.98
Flop
($15.94)
8
6
Q
(2 Players)
Hero bets $10,
BN calls $10
Turn
($35.94)
8
6
Q
7
(2 Players)
Hero bets $25,
BN calls $25
River
($85.94)
8
6
Q
7
3
(2 Players)
Hero bets $73.50,
BN calls $73.50
Final Pot
Hero has
A
8
A
J
BN has
9
6
7
T
BN
wins $229.14
Villain in hand is a reg (Catenaccio). Statswise he plays 27/20/5 pf, opens around 77% otb, folds around 25% to 3bet. Has slightly lower than average (avg at plo100) fold to cbets (47% flop, 32% turn, 66% river).
My 3bet from bb is quite low, around 4-5%.
What do you think about the bluff?
Loading 9 Comments...
I think he puts you on a limited number of three barrel flushes, and believes that due to your AA heavy 3bet range you'll have lots of naked NF blocker hands to bluff. Whether or not his call down is correct depends on what you do with various parts of your range. You may have enough value combos in this spot that a bluff with this hand is warranted. However if you check the flop with nfd, or don't barrel enough worse flushes you could be bluff heavy. Would have to do some street by street range construction to determine if you should be bluffing all NF blockers. My guess is that the bluff is probably fine.
As played I think it's fine, I think you would have enough A/K high flushes in your range so that you can get away with Ah/Kh bluffing.
Btw, I'm not sure if flop c-bet is totally standard here. Does anyone like checking? I don't hate betting with our blocker because we can barrel on heart/A/8/6 turns, but this is a board that should hit his range pretty hard and with our actual hand we are only a slight favourite (55% against 55%!(AA,AKk$ds,AKQQ$ds,AQQJ$ds)). FYI our range of $3b4o has about 58% equity vs his range, and we should have a lot of better hands to start barreling with.
I still like our Ah blocker though, and wouldn't be surprised if this is a standard c-bet.
ad checking flop: checking with what follow-up plan? check-fold vs any reasonable bet?
Yeah I think so, if we check this we would have to x/f against any decent sized bet.
I gave it some more thoughts, and betting seems standard. This board doesn't smash his range as hard as I thought. If we change it to QT6hh though (Q96hh is close), I think we might have to x/f more often.
I not sure that checking is standard here but i cant think of anything else here. I feel like if you check here with your holding you are check folding and basically giving up, which i dont like. By checking flop you cant represent the nut flush anymore against a good player cuz you would never check here if you have AA with the nut FD.
I prefer betting and easy fold if i get raised, betting flushes and board pairing cards OTT.
I think we have it more than we don't so I don't see the problem with bluffing.
Seems okay to me. Make a note and remember to go for lots of value with your big flushes.
Not a fan of the river bluff especially if hes calling the nut straight here.....there's just a ton of flush combos he can have going to the river.
Ok so I did a little calc.
My Preflop range: 3B4o (PokerJuice range)
My flop cbet range (this I am not 100% sure of):
(Q:(8,6,AA,hh,JT,J9,T9,T7),88,66,Ah,KhK,JT9,T97,975,AA:(97,T9,ss:(JT,J9,T7)))
My turn cbet range:
(Ah,Kh,Jhh) (=all J-high or better flushes + all A or K flush blockers)
Then on the river, I have:
1504 combos of flushes (Ahh,Khh,Jhh) (54% of range)
1282 combos of blockers (Ah!hh,Kh!hh) (46% of range)
(2786 total combos)
Given the betsize $73.5 into $86, I can bluff maximum of (73.5/(86+2*73.5)=) 31.5%, which means my Valuebet : Bluff ratio needs to be 68.5 : 31.5 or around 2.2 : 1.
Since I have 1504 combos of flushes, I can bluff with (1504/2.2=) 684 combos of blockers, which is about (684/1282=) 53% of my blockers.
Conclusion:
Given I would usually bluff over 90% of my nut blockers, I am apparently making quite a big overbluffing mistake here. (If my math is correct here. Hope you guys correct me if not.) Also, I should probably valuebet pretty much all my lower flushes as well (only about 115 additional combos, all 8+ high).
And if I expect him to call all his 95 straights or better, I should exploitatively stop bluffing river almost at all (until he adjusts), because even if I give him liberal turn calling range of (hh, T9, 95, 77, Q76, Ah!hh, Kh!hh), he only folds around 16% of times on the river. If I remove the questionable floats, he doesnt fold almost ever.
Also, a better strategy might possibly be to not cbet flop with nut blockers so frequently, just pick the best blocker hands to improve the flush : blocker ratio on the flop already and go all the way with much higher percentage of them.Be the first to add a comment