PLO10-Z AA ip at SPR 5.8
Posted by unbuwoha
Posted by
unbuwoha
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO10-Z AA ip at SPR 5.8
BN: $21.23
SB: $5.07
BB: $9.45
UTG: $10.34
HJ: $11.25
CO: $10.32 (Hero)
SB: $5.07
BB: $9.45
UTG: $10.34
HJ: $11.25
CO: $10.32 (Hero)
Zoom unknown
Preflop
($0.15)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
3
A
A
2
UTG raises to $0.20, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $0.55
UTG raises to $0.20, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $0.55
Flop
($1.65)
Q
4
3
(2 Players)
UTG checks,
Hero bets $1.25,
UTG raises to $5.33
SPR is 5.8 (need 46% EQ). Vs a stackoff range of 20%6h!AA:(QQ,44,33,Q4,Q3,43,dAd,dd:(Q,4,3,56,52),(56,52):(Q,4,3)) my equity is 41.6%. Villain has dd 62% of the time. If villain selects his oop 3b calling hands my equity increases a few % and I face a FD like 4/5th of the time.
What do you think of calling villain's raise and continue on any non diamond turn instead of stacking off OTF? Do you think checking back is an option here with GS and BDNFD?
Loading 8 Comments...
Does anyone have an idea?
You can run two OO calcs to get the answer:
1. How often does hero have the turn equity to stack off (with the pot odds you're getting there
2. What is hero's average equity on those cards
Then set up the EV equation. You can also get OO to list the turn cards, together with your equity. That way you can see exactly which cards you should continue on.
The compare the EV for your 3 options:
- Fold flop
- Jam flop
- Peel flop and play turns accurately
And choose the line that maximizes your EV.
Board:Qd4d3s
Hero:As2sAc3d
Range villain: 20%6h!AA:(QQ,44,33,Q4,Q3,43,dAd,dd:(KK,Q,4,3,56,52),(56,52):(KK,Q,4,3))
Equity if all in OTF: 42.9%
Required equity OTT if calling flop: 20.4%
Equity breakdown for hero OTT
We fold on 8 cards OTT (any diamond except the 5d which gives us a Straight).Average all in equity OTT when calling: 50%
Expexted value in relation to our starting stack
PLO10 Stars
EV (bet/fold OTF): -20 BB
EV (bet/ai OTF): -20.4 BB
EV (bet/call + decide OTT): -16.4 BB
PLO25 Stars
EV (bet/fold OTF): -20 BB
EV (bet/ai OTF): -17.4 BB
EV (bet/call + decide OTT): -13.5 BB
PLO50 Stars
EV (bet/fold OTF): -20 BB
EV (bet/ai OTF): -16 BB
EV (bet/call + decide OTT): -12.2 BB
How often villain matches stack off range OTF: 32.4%
Hero's EV if villain folds to cbet is 9BB-(rake%*floppot)
Overall EV in relation to our starting stack
EV (bet/fold OTF): -0.9 BB
EV (bet/call + decide OTT): 0.7 BB (PLO10); 1.2 BB (PLO25); 1.6 BB (PLO50)
Some ideas for discussion:
The main assumption I made is villain's stackoff range. Since a big part of the range comprises flush draws, bet/call + decide OTT yields the highest EV. I was surprised that the overall EV is marginal when we decide to cbet. Cbetting smaller + fold to a raise could be an option for the highest rake games. However, when stacking off we can catch villains spazzing outs. But the main question is if we can perform better by checking behind OTF? I don't know vs unknowns. Since our range is capped we are at the mercy of our villain.
unbuwoha,
Solid analysis, bonus points for including rake effects. About checking back: Your check-back range is less capped if you make a habit of including hands with outs.
hi,
On this spot at this level (where I play) I guess this kind of situation is just Variance ++, there are tons of others situations where you could ship EV +++. Here as played I just fold but I would prefer a check on the flop and a 90% bet if checked to again and a call if vilain is weird/fishy.
++
It's not even variance, it's just dumb, fold and find better spots really. He'll turn Q473r and you'll end up facepalming. Thinking in terms of *range* at this level is burning money. People just have it when they raise. Might not want to 3bet to that small amount with those garbage aces in the 1st place, and probably bet 1 not 1.25 so you won't feel that committed to the pot.
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