PLO10: Barrel through vs nit?

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PLO10: Barrel through vs nit?

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: FlamingMoe86: $10.00 (Hero)
SB: Mindthis: $10.00
BB: tirotere: $19.43
UTG: Dr. Beaver9: $11.58
MP: ShamrockAA1: $6.24
CO: Mnkp: $22.50
Preflop ($0.15) FlamingMoe86 is BN with 7 9 3 A
3 folds, FlamingMoe86 raises to $0.35, Mindthis folds, tirotere calls $0.25
Flop ($0.75) 5 8 4
tirotere checks, FlamingMoe86 bets $0.50, tirotere calls $0.50
Turn ($1.75) 5 8 4 Q
tirotere checks, FlamingMoe86 bets $1.35, tirotere calls $1.35
River ($4.45) 5 8 4 Q 9
tirotere checks, FlamingMoe86 checks

Villain is 10/5 after 20 hands, so I guess hes rather tight :-)
Should we barrel and bluff the river?

I just started with Poker Juice and tend to get carried away, if someone just wants to skip everything I wrote and just give his own thought on how to play the hand, that would still be helpful.

Preflop:

I give him 25% and exclude a 3bet range of 6%. Against that range I only have 42% EQ. If he raises a straight and calls with 2pair+ and 8out straight draws+, he folds 87%.

Flop:
If he calls with K8+ he folds only 37%, if he calls with A8+, that number jumps to 80%, any thoughts on that? My blocker only has a 1% effect on that, so it can only be that there is a huge jump in his preflop range, meaning there are few hands that have an A and an 8 but many more with a K and an 8? Anyhow, continuing and assuming he only calls A8+.

Turn:
On the turn I think he only continues with Q8+, 85+ if he has a flushdraw, and 97T with a flushdraw, and his wraps=he calls 35%.

River:
I have 20% EQ vs his range, making a check +0.89$

If I bet 3$ I expect to get called by Q9+ =26% of the time.

EV bluff: 0.26 * -3 + 0.74 * 4.45=2.5$

This looks almost to good to be true, so where might be the mistake?

5 Comments

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Ephedrine10 9 years ago

I think these are safe things to assume. So flop calling range: any naked KK or better, any pair + gutter, any double gutter or open ender. These seem loose ranges, however he still calls only 29% of the time. Turn barrel is fine the assumption that he calls with any 8 out str8 draw is a bit too loose i guess, but he often has something to go along with it, and I tried to give the loosest range possible, he still calls only 36% on the turn. River I think he will call you with stronger 2 pairs if he callled the turn. (and probably doesnt give u credit for high str8. he will call u 40% of the time so betting around half a pot seems best. But I think as an exploit this is ok ( I otfen play the same way) But u should know that very probably we are waaay overbluffing and we have weak ranges often.
PS: if opponent is aggro (he can be a nit besides ) I might chb flop coz its very good for attacking.
PKJ syntax: dont use pair+ kicker syntax in PKJ it will just give you fase results. firstly: A8+ does not include 55TT for example or 8KQJ which he will call for sure. Use just a simple 8+ instead and give after : what else u think needs to strenghten that 8 (gutter, FD, etc). And be careful coz 8:32+ is not enough coz it does not contain 2 pairs for example if that 2 pair does not have the SD to go along. So to sum it up how I give ranges :

on its own strong made hands so 2 pairs for ex here
on its own strong draws (no such here coz only gutters out) but for diff board it might be a flushdraw or wrap
combinations (not enough on its own ) very often a pair+ something

Gambling_Poet 9 years ago

Thanks a lot! I did not know that A8+ will not include 2pairs etc, that is kinda strange since adding 2pair+ will add sets. In this hand I had put in 45+, bottom 2pair, so it didnt matter, but I definitely would have made that mistake in future hands. Overbluffing is not a concern for me at PLO10 :-).

You say you would check back the flop against an aggro opponent because its good for attacking, but I think I would need more of a hand for that. Something like a pair and a non-nut-flushdraw would be nice, since our hand will be disguised. Basically I would check with hands that are decent but can not stand a chekraise, though again this is PLO10 and we dont have to worry too much about getting checkraised and blown off our equity, because a flopcheckraise at this limit is so strong that we dont have that much EQ anyway with a medium hand.

Ephedrine10 9 years ago

Agreed. Usually i cbet as well. There are a few guys who have 30%+raise cbet over a bigger sample. (Actually it was 48% ridicupously high) but i found it quite hard to adjust when someone raises cbet really a lot, but attacks turn if u chb flop.

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