PLO10 AA+nutfd facing donk, just a simple question...

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PLO10 AA+nutfd facing donk, just a simple question...

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $21.65 (Hero)
SB: $9.35
BB: $19.47
UTG: $15.36
MP: $20.29
CO: $10.20
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is BN with 6 A 7 A
2 folds, CO raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.20, SB folds, BB calls $1.10, CO calls $0.85
Flop ($3.65) 8 8 2
BB bets $2.61, CO folds, Hero calls $2.61
Turn ($8.87) 8 8 2 3
BB bets $4.24, Hero folds
Final Pot BB wins $8.49
Rake is $0.38

Villain is 14/8 with AFq 27%.

I am missing a tool like Cardrunners EV for PLO and can't get a clear picture of my EV. With him being so tight I assume this is almost never a 22* and neither 82*, but probably an 8 like 95% of the time. So I am definitely drawing to some outs, but am facing rather low implieds and also some reverse implieds. Should I just go ahead and fold the flop?

2 Comments

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nmlfree 9 years, 2 months ago

I think you should peel at least one there because you have 33% eq and rather deep stacks w some good implied odds w your boat outs.
So for that matter i'd pretty much defend there w any OP+FD. (The lower OP have less eq but they have the benefit of being more "sneaky" so when u boat up, u should have plenty of action.

So if you only continue w a 8 or better you would continue 13% which seems kind of low. Not that it matters if he's never bluffing, but just that villain has a good incentive to start bluffing "in theory".

If you continue w a more reasonable range of 8 or better, double pairs, OP+FD , then u would continue around 31.91% which seems a more appropriate freq given the situation and i believe that hitting overfull houses is very valuable at this stack depth (along keeping villain honest)

Lufthansa27 9 years, 2 months ago

Although his turn bet looks a lot like a full house, there shouldn't be many in his range. Double paired hand with a 22 in it seems like the most likely one.
I am very suspicious of his turn sizing, but I doubt I can find a fold given the odds.

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