PLO10 AA** overpair+TP facing jam

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

PLO10 AA** overpair+TP facing jam

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: Mutinio: $10.00
SB: hg18l7: $20.40
BB: anderb1991: $10.00
UTG: Masha PRO9: $9.70
MP: Alaman123: $10.14
CO: FlamingMoe86: $10.00 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.15) FlamingMoe86 is CO with A J T A
Masha PRO9 folds, Alaman123 raises to $0.30, FlamingMoe86 raises to $1.05, 3 folds, Alaman123 calls $0.75
Flop ($2.25) 2 J 6
Alaman123 checks, FlamingMoe86 bets $1.70, Alaman123 raises to $7.25, FlamingMoe86 raises to $8.95 and is all in, Alaman123 calls $1.70
Turn ($20.15) 2 J 6 9
River ($20.15) 2 J 6 9 9
Final Pot Alaman123 wins and shows a flush, King high.
Alaman123 wins $19.29
Rake is $0.86

Very first hand vs villain...and mysteriously the last one I ever played vs him...

Assuming hes AI, I need 36% to break even.

Against all sets + the nut flushdraw I have 33%... not enough? Without spoiling the results, he did have a weak pocketpair+ K high flushdraw, so even though I expect to see mostly sets here, he doesnt need to have less than that too often. Call or fold?

2 Comments

Loading 2 Comments...

lospengin 9 years, 2 months ago

I think it's pretty easy call given the odds. You have more than 36% against his range, and I don't think he has a set as often as you think. The only 66 or 22 he should have is in his double pair hands and we block a J. He still could have all those but I think pair plus fd is a bigger part of his range, especially since we don't block any clubs.

Roberto 9 years, 2 months ago

I ran this hand and you're crushing here vs 62+ and draws. Even removing some of his weaker draws such as QQcc didn't shift the EV that much. The big shift came when I removed your J. Blocking J+ is huge here. You're still supposed to get in without the J though, but more happily now. Removing your backdoor flush deceased your EV even more but enough to fold once you CB.

An interesting side note. I ran this with him opening 30% from MP, your EV goes up the tighter he opens.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy