PLO10 AA** overpair+TP facing jam
Posted by Gambling_Poet
Posted by
Gambling_Poet
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO10 AA** overpair+TP facing jam
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: Mutinio: $10.00
SB: hg18l7: $20.40
BB: anderb1991: $10.00
UTG: Masha PRO9: $9.70
MP: Alaman123: $10.14
CO: FlamingMoe86: $10.00 (Hero)
SB: hg18l7: $20.40
BB: anderb1991: $10.00
UTG: Masha PRO9: $9.70
MP: Alaman123: $10.14
CO: FlamingMoe86: $10.00 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.15)
FlamingMoe86 is CO with
A
J
T
A
, , , ,
Flop
($2.25)
2
J
6
, , , ,
Turn
($20.15)
2
J
6
9
River
($20.15)
2
J
6
9
9
Final Pot
Alaman123
wins and shows a flush, King high.
Alaman123 wins $19.29
Rake is $0.86
Alaman123 wins $19.29
Rake is $0.86
Very first hand vs villain...and mysteriously the last one I ever played vs him...
Assuming hes AI, I need 36% to break even.
Against all sets + the nut flushdraw I have 33%... not enough? Without spoiling the results, he did have a weak pocketpair+ K high flushdraw, so even though I expect to see mostly sets here, he doesnt need to have less than that too often. Call or fold?
Loading 2 Comments...
I think it's pretty easy call given the odds. You have more than 36% against his range, and I don't think he has a set as often as you think. The only 66 or 22 he should have is in his double pair hands and we block a J. He still could have all those but I think pair plus fd is a bigger part of his range, especially since we don't block any clubs.
I ran this hand and you're crushing here vs 62+ and draws. Even removing some of his weaker draws such as QQcc didn't shift the EV that much. The big shift came when I removed your J. Blocking J+ is huge here. You're still supposed to get in without the J though, but more happily now. Removing your backdoor flush deceased your EV even more but enough to fold once you CB.
An interesting side note. I ran this with him opening 30% from MP, your EV goes up the tighter he opens.
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