PLO Mid Stakes MTT Bubble Situation
Posted by InsideMan
Posted by
InsideMan
posted in
Mid Stakes
PLO Mid Stakes MTT Bubble Situation
CO: joao bauer: 5,141
BN: TabarinLucas: 4,462
SB: Ashley Jones: 96,441
This is on the bubble of a 22$ rebuy tournament on Stars. The payout structure is the following:
- 680
- 408
- 272
There was a lot of folding going on from myself and the BTN as the CO was playing very aggressively and we were just waiting for him to bust against the big stack, however since he managed to build up his stack to not being the shortest stack, he has been folding every hand.
I ran some numbers and against the SB who is shoving 100% of hands here we have about 55% equity. Using traditional ICM analysis we should fold since our stack is either worth 282.39 USD 55% of the time or 0 USD 45% of the time and just folding gives us an ICM value of 179.57 (179.57 vs 155.3145 from shoving). However in this situation I will be the first player to be all in for the blinds, so I don't think we really have the luxury of waiting for a better spot, despite this being "$ minus EV". The way I see it, there is nothing we can do here but take our edge and risk busting. I'm just not sure if I am maybe missing something.
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I like just calling pre. There are a few flops you could possibly get away and fold. Of course not many, but in case it is Ah2h5h-type, you may do better by choosing to take a chance in the next 2 hands. Doesnt make much difference, but its still something.
In case you had only options to GII or fold, then I guess you unfortunately have to go with it.
Yea, I didn't even really consider calling as an option, but I think you are right given the situation and the transparency we have over his range. I also didn't intuitively think our equity could be so low on some boards vs random. Thanks for your input.
Your table seat makes your strategic equilibrium leans toward open ripping ~85% on Bauer and Lucas from the BTN and folding most of the time when Ashley shoves on you.
Just saw your post. The big stack is shoving 95% or so, so that isn't really relevant. It also makes intuitive sense for the big stack to do that since everybody is massively overfolding due to ICM.
Doubt CL have openfolding range tho, Raph )
But guess yes we should wait for better hand in absolute strength terms or allow other shorties to make ICM mistake irather than use our bb discount as a reason for marginal (most likely -$ev) stack off.
well, it's not over folding if folding is the correct play. huge ICM tax here though vs the chip leader and you have to acknowledge that. I think flatting pre may have been the best play as well. shoving here with villain having no FE is probobaly worse than folding(I could be wrong and should look into this more), the ICM factor is that big here on the stone bubble though, the way the chips are distributed. as Raph mentioned, it's an ICM disaster getting involved here with the CL, meaning it's a monetary disaster(of course there are hands with enough equity to profitably do so). the blinds are about to hit the other two shorties as well. you are in a pretty good spot to cash really, this spot simply comes down to knowing more about ICM than PLO.
seems like u have a good grasp on the situation, you crunched the ICM numbers and found the answer to how much equity you needed to profitably shove versus his supposed any 4 open. why are you now ignoring the answers you came up with? you note you will be the first to be blinded out but there is still a ton of play left.
another thing to consider is how aware the other villains are of ICM. perhaps there is a good chance that one of the other two will get it in to light versus the CL, or in your favor, perhaps versus each other.
Is stop n go also valueble for plo mtts, if so calling pre and shoving any flop might be better than always flip pre!?
Calling and shoving your ok+ flops is best. There's no reason to waste money on the bottom quarter of flops. Normally this is a good line with mid to high rundowns for slightly deeper stacks where calling creates SPR 1, but here the bubble factor makes it work this shallow. And if you whiff the flop you actually get to live for up to six hands, albeit with a microstack.
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