PLO, capped ranges OOP on static turns and rivers
Posted by themightyjim
Posted by
themightyjim
posted in
Mid Stakes
PLO, capped ranges OOP on static turns and rivers
SB: $543.00
Hero (BB): $964.50
BTN: $696.87
I have played a lot with BTN, but he probably doesn't recognize me as this site allows for SN changes and I recently changed mine. I probably have a fairly aggressive image 3 handed (something like 41/35/10) but this is mostly a guess based on this session. We're sitting at a few tables together.
BTN's 3 handed stats are: VPIP: 39, PFR: 33, 3Bet Preflop: 11, Hands: 2k. 50% W$WSF, 29/43 SD stats. I know he's capable of barreling strong equity and bluffing rivers.
Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with 7c As Jc Ac
BTN raises to $10.50, SB calls $8.50, Hero calls $6.50
Flop: ($31.50) Kd Js Ah (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $22.44, SB folds, Hero calls $22.44
Turn: ($76.38) 5c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $55.78, Hero calls $55.78
River: ($187.94) 7s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $172, Hero?
pre I decided not to 3bet because I know both villains (SB is a mediocre reg that plays a stabby semi-lag style) are very likely to call and play very tough on flops and rivers and I'm OOP and 175BB deep with BTN and only ok aces. I know I have an equity edge, but I also know that my range will be more transparent if a 3bet, and I don't believe the preflop equity edge I push is going to make up for the difficulties I face on a ton of boards in this spot.
flop and turn both seem standard. I don't really see much merit to raising flop as I'd expect villain to bet KKxx at least twice, and with no FDs I don't think I really have much to protect from.
On the river I am stuck in this spot that often seems like a problem against good PLO players. Because I haven't raised the flop or turn I've probably capped my range. The only nut hand I'd play this way would be something like KKQT since I would want to induce action from villain. But even that hand would at least consider raising a flop or turn to try and get more money from AAxx. So my range is basically capped at what I have. And villain is still betting. I expect that he would likely keep barreling all of his QQxx hands that started the flop bluff, and maybe some of his TTxx hands. But his flop cbet% is pretty low (55%) and his turn bet % is only 54% as well. So I feel like he has more value bets than bluffs on this board. But I also know that in his spot I would fire all my bluffs on the river because the x/c'er always looks capped on the river.
1) should I call river considering where I am in my range? or is folding probably more +EV despite being more exploitable simply because villains range has me so dominated by the river?
2) how do I avoid this spot in PLO (not just in this hand but in general)? I try to keep my x/c range various flops somewhat balanced by x/c'ing some sets/top two type hands that don't have bd draws and will often be in tough shape on many turns on dynamic boards. That way my x/c range has some strength and villains can't barrel me with impunity. I also x/c nutted hands that have redraws. But when we get to the turn and my opponent second barrels I tend to put in a x/r with the top of my range to make sure that villain can't check back the river with his strong non-nut hands that may stack off or call vs my turn raise. So I feel that my range construction for x/c'ing is too unbalanced and too weak and this may be a leak.
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