PLO 50 - tricky spot with AA +FD OOP 300BB deep

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PLO 50 - tricky spot with AA +FD OOP 300BB deep

History for hand R5-425570524-156
Start hand: Tue Jan 20 12:12:49 CET 2015
Table: Maastricht [425570524] (POTLIMIT OMAHAHI $0.50/$0.50, Real money)
User: carmenqueas_
Button: seat 1
Players in round: 3 (6)
Seat 1: Striv3r ($152.95)
Seat 2: carmenqueas_ ($168.43)
Seat 3: forthefamia ($50)
carmenqueas_ posts big blind ($0.50)

forthefamia posts big blind ($0.50)

Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to carmenqueas: [Td, Ah, Ac, Jc]
Striv3r raises $2 to $2
carmenqueas
raises $6 to $6.50
forthefamia calls $6
Striv3r calls $4.50
--- Dealing flop [2c, 6h, Kc]
carmenqueas_ bets $14.50
forthefamia folds
Striv3r calls $14.50
--- Dealing turn [Jh]
carmenqueas_ bets $40
Striv3r calls $40
--- Dealing river [Kh]
carmenqueas_ checks
Striv3r bets $64.50

carmenqueas_ folds

Summary:
Main pot: $128.50 won by Striv3r ($126.50)
Rake taken: $2
Seat 1: Striv3r ($218.45), net: +$65.50
Seat 2: carmenqueas_ ($107.43), net: -$61
Seat 3: forthefamia ($43.50), net: -$6.50
End of hand R5-425570524-156

Hello, I would like your advice on this hand.

Vilain is a good reg. A bit tight pref but good postflop. He plays a lot up to 200$ table. He is 26/15 , steal 27%, 5% 3bet , fold cbet 56% in 3bet pt. River agression 36%. I have only 600 hands so those stats are not perfect.

BB is a middel player, playing to loose, he should be tilty since he lost flush max vs my straight flush recently.

I'm not used to play so deep, so every comments are welcome.

Preflop play is standard with my very good AA,

Cbet standard, maybe I should size a bit higher since we are so deep and I'm OOP like 17. BB folds et good reg call.

He could have a lot of things on this board so deep. Any K, any 2 pairs ( who wait a safety turn), pair+ low SD, pair + FD, dry FD Q high,...

After analysis I think I made my biggest mystake on the Turn. I think now it's a clear C/R turn.

I have J blocker vs KJ 2 pairs. I have FD max, overpair and gutshot. And some paired cards river broke his 2 pairs hands. With all this equity I'm never in bad shape vs his range. + He could fold bad 2 pairs hands vs my shove: K2/62/maybe K6,...

  • River will be very difficult to play for me if He just calls given the fact they are so many draws now. I'll be OOP and SPR will be minus 1. He can play perfectly vs me.

A check looks kind of weak so deep turn with so many draws. I'm expecting He could stab few times. He could potentialy check back, realises his equity or waiting for a safe river. But it's not really a big deal for me since I have also many good cards river: Flush + Q + J + A+2 (10/6 could be tricky). It keeps SPR higher in a tricky spot.

As played, I think I prefer a bet pot turn if I bet. It looks stronger, like KK top set.

And I dont know if my river play is correct. My A blocker to flush heart is without interest since He will call every flush, He calls every K as well.

I think there are a lot of backdoor flush and K in his hand. FD clubs is less likely if we get to the river since I have the nut FD.

And the combo small pair (without K) + low SD are a small part of his range i think.

I'm surprised by his sizing. Either a bluf or a value bet should be all in. But i'm slighty thinking this lower sizing looks like a value bet.

I get crazy odds to call, but I still prefer the fold.

Any thoughts ?

Last question: can I go broke flop if reg shoves me? (knowing he would have very strong range so deep: 22+, K2+ :FD,...

Sorry for the english

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