plo 50 flop decision with AA in a small 3b pot
Posted by midori
Posted by
midori
posted in
Low Stakes
plo 50 flop decision with AA in a small 3b pot
UTG: 39.53
HJ: 72.51 (Hero)
CO: 45.90
BN: 46.28
SB: 41.54
BB: 43.36
HJ: 72.51 (Hero)
CO: 45.90
BN: 46.28
SB: 41.54
BB: 43.36
Preflop
(0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
4
A
A
7
UTG folds, Hero raises to 1.50, CO raises to 2.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls 1
UTG folds, Hero raises to 1.50, CO raises to 2.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls 1
CO was playing 46/23/9 over 30 hands. When he makes a small 3b I wasn't quite sure if I should 4b and get to flop with SPR=3, or just flat and play a smallish pot. I thought my AA wasn't that good to warrant a 4b here, but I might be wrong. Thoughts?
Flop
(5.75)
Q
2
9
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets 4.02
This is a spot that I find somewhat tricky. We have only one weak backdoor draw, so we'd be forced to x/f on lots of turns after calling the flop. At the same time, we are more or less at the top of our range, and folding to a single seems a bit too weak. I think this discrepancy comes from the fact that, despite having the best hand somewhat often on flop, we just can't profitably continue on many runouts.
That said, how would you play here?
That said, how would you play here?
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Reflect on this: You are not at the top of your range in terms of hands that can make money.
Hot'n cold equity is an illusion when stacks are deep, OOP doubly so. Just commenting on the top-of-range argument in general here. It can be very misleading if we get too hung up in the hand's ranking within our range, and on current street in a vacuum. What matters is the hand's value, not what it can beat right now.
Thanks, that makes a lot of sense! I guess that's what I tried to say by..
I think hands like this demonstrates how hard it is to play well OOP when we're deep, and why so. There could be many reasons, but imo the biggest one is that it's practically impossible to plan ahead for the future streets, mostly due to the lack of information (we have to act first) and volatility of equity in PLO (i.e. things change very often on flop, turn and river). Pretty much a cliche, but thought it'd be worth repeating :)
In fact, OP is not even on the top of his range in terms of hot and cold equity! His hand has 54%, while a Qxxx hand from your range has 63%, and even 2xxx has 56%! So we're in fact pretty close to the bottom of our range in terms of equity vs villain's whole range. I expect things to look similar against villain's continuing range.
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Qh 9s 2c
Ad 7d Ac 4s 53.85% (311,523 wins, 23,143 ties)
15%6h 46.15% (265,334 wins, 23,143 ties)
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Qh 9s 2c
15%6h:Q 63.89% (375,395 wins, 15,842 ties)
15%6h 36.11% (208,763 wins, 15,842 ties)
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Qh 9s 2c
15%6h:2 55.59% (326,767 wins, 13,568 ties)
15%6h 44.41% (259,665 wins, 13,568 ties)
Even if we put villain on 10%6h rather than 15%6h, Qxxx still has 61%. So in terms of hot and cold equity our actual hand is maybe in the middle of our range. In terms of playability it's probably even lower, since when we have Qxxx we have more outs for making decent two-pair hands in future streets.
I think things would be different on, say, a 952r flop. But on Q92r you have plenty of hands to continue with, so I don't see any reason to put bare AA in our continuing range.
About the hand: I usually 4bet pre. But if OP decides to flat pre, then I think that on the flop x/f > b/f > x/c.
@eldodo42
Thanks, and I agree that we can continue on 952r flop more often than Q92r flop. I guess it's just a range forking thing; most turn cards on Q92r board will help his range, which is less true on 952r.
I would like to comment SPR...
When you 4-bet full pot to $9,75 => pot(flop) = $19,5 when he just calls.
Then he has $45,9 - $9,75 = $36,15 => eff SPR(flop) = 1,85 < 2 <> 3
I think preflop/flop=call/fold is okay play, maybe some would like to 4-bet pre to get to SPR~2, but never mind...
Additionally, when you decided not to 4-bet pre, you could happily fold that flop and move on...Ouch, you're right, I messed up the calculation somewhere. Thanks for pointing that out. :)
Pot 4 bet pre would be $8.50 (3 x $2.50 + $0.75) (You don't count the money you have already bet.) So the spr would be 2.11. ($17.75 in the pot and he has $37.40 left)
I like 4 betting pre at this depth. (150bb+ I would flat.) Don't forget that Villain could shove pre, which is perfect for us.
As played, I don't mind a fold or a call. I usually call and hope he slows down on some turns but remain optimistic.
Thanks - you are right...
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