PLO 25 turning made hand into a bluff on river
Posted by dddduhh
Posted by
dddduhh
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO 25 turning made hand into a bluff on river
BN: $31.82 (Hero)
SB: $39.91
BB: $21.77
UTG: $25.36
HJ: $38.77
CO: $14.97
SB: $39.91
BB: $21.77
UTG: $25.36
HJ: $38.77
CO: $14.97
My reads on SB are that he seems pretty good / tricky
Logical thinking player read:
flat JsJT6 sb vs bu
...x QT3... x K with OESD + blockers to nuts... x/c JJ on 5 for 40% (able to deduce when his weak made hand should be good)
Tricky read:
probe/call NutStr8 no re-draw on A43ss 5cc, x/r small J
Logical thinking player read:
flat JsJT6 sb vs bu
...x QT3... x K with OESD + blockers to nuts... x/c JJ on 5 for 40% (able to deduce when his weak made hand should be good)
Tricky read:
probe/call NutStr8 no re-draw on A43ss 5cc, x/r small J
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
3
7
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB folds
Flop
($1.75)
J
5
A
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $1,
SB raises to $3.50,
Hero calls $2.50
I bet smaller, so I think his x/r could be wider to attack this perhaps perceived weakness
Once I get x/r'd, I don't 3bet because I'm never getting it in ahead here & there isn't a ton to protect against
Once I get x/r'd, I don't 3bet because I'm never getting it in ahead here & there isn't a ton to protect against
Turn
($8.75)
J
5
A
7
(2 Players)
SB bets $7.20,
Hero calls $7.20
I hit 3pair & on second thought, maybe I should just shove here?
I decided to call in the moment I guess because his large bet sizing felt strong & I figured he had something like AJ a decent amount (some of which would be free-rolling me if we get it all-in if he had a draw to go along with it), or even JJ or 55 sometimes
For him to have a hand that wants to bet that big on the turn & that I'm ahead of, he would of had to x/r flop with something like AKxx with clubs or AK86 or maybe AK7 (so I guess it's a lil hard? I mean I guess it's not that hard for him to pick up Flush Draw that wants to 2nd barrel)
Opinion on shoving?
I decided to call in the moment I guess because his large bet sizing felt strong & I figured he had something like AJ a decent amount (some of which would be free-rolling me if we get it all-in if he had a draw to go along with it), or even JJ or 55 sometimes
For him to have a hand that wants to bet that big on the turn & that I'm ahead of, he would of had to x/r flop with something like AKxx with clubs or AK86 or maybe AK7 (so I guess it's a lil hard? I mean I guess it's not that hard for him to pick up Flush Draw that wants to 2nd barrel)
Opinion on shoving?
River
($23.15)
J
5
A
7
T
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $12.25
He checks to me on this river & I don't think he has much of a reason to check a river'd straight to me in hopes that I bluff a busted draw (I don't really have that many after I call his x/r on the flop)
So I don't think he has a straight given this & I think he may have AJ which I tie against or JJ / 55 which I lose against. I also think it is possible for him to put me on a hand like AKQT or AKQ that picked up a FD on the turn
So I decide bet to take him off of a chop / win the pot from the possible sets as given my reads outlined at the start of the hand, I think he's a thinking player that can make a fold
Opinion on river bet?
So I don't think he has a straight given this & I think he may have AJ which I tie against or JJ / 55 which I lose against. I also think it is possible for him to put me on a hand like AKQT or AKQ that picked up a FD on the turn
So I decide bet to take him off of a chop / win the pot from the possible sets as given my reads outlined at the start of the hand, I think he's a thinking player that can make a fold
Opinion on river bet?
Loading 3 Comments...
It would be interesting to know how high his 3bet% and flopx/r% is since that tells us how many AA he flats pre instead of 3betting and how wide he's 3betting. That's very crucial here imo since he could 3bet every AA and x/r a ton which would make me like my hand a lot more than vs someone 3bettin 2% and x/r 10%.
Vs the nittiest of opponents I even let this go OTF.
OTT I after he bets this big I think it's a shove or fold. If you think he mainly has sets, 2pair here obv you have to fold (prolly already fold OTF). If he 3bets wider and you think he would sometimes x/r A-blocker + backdoors that's to weak to x/c you can shove and gii good vs TP+the now-not-backdoor-anymore draw OTT.
River: I'm kind of confused by his check. Again, it's hard to come up with a range without reads/stats.
- value: AA,JJ, 55, AJ. I would expect a shove from the set hands since hecan't really x/f them with this SPR. OTF your calling range is way more made hand-heavy than draw heavy (only wheel or broardway wrap) so by checking he loses value from all worse made hands and still loses his stack to KQ (assuming he doesn't x/f).
- air/semibluff: Like I said it's very villain dependant how many non set/AJ hands there are in the flop x/r and turn betting range. OTR this range is always losing vs your hand if it does check -> 89/KQ will shove and all the backdoor and/or blocker hands OTF that x/raised will either bluffshove or x/f.
Conclusion: No value in shoving vs this part of the range.
So in the end I would say that we never get x/called by worse (which I know wasn't what you were aiming for) but also very rarely get better (sets or splits) to fold.
Vs the 'avearage' 25plo reg I would prolly fold flop if he's very tight or call flop and shove or fold turn depending on how many light x/r I think he has OTF.
I took me ages to write down my thoughts since I just woke up. I hope everything is understandable. If not feel free to criticize or ask questions.
Also, this is obv just my attempt to break down this spot. I play 25plo as well so def don't take my advice as more advanced or better than your's. ;)
Thanks for your thoughts homie. I think this guy is a bit tricky so I put him in the more aggressive side of regular players.
I wasn't playing with a HUD but I'm pretty sure he 3bets most AA so I heavily discounted that, especially combined with the A blocker I have.
This is kind of separate but I think HUDs are not that useful for making decisions like these unless you have 10k hands on someone & the flop x/r stat is reliable. My opinion is that showndown hands are where we need to focus on to make good plays. Because it's not that hard to have 150 hands on a guy & he has a x/r of 20% but he had a set 2 out of 10 times & never x/r's light for example. Whereas if we had a showndown hand read that he doesn't thinnly value bet for example, that would lead me to believe he is less aggressive & less likely to x/r bluff which would be more reliable than a 20% x/r stat. HUDs have made me make bad plays before personally & I try to rely much more on showndown hands... in order to do so & not be lazy, sometimes I take my HUD off so I don't rely on it for reads.
I know any information should be helpful but sometimes it becomes information overload (for me at least)
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