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PLO 25 KK93ds looking to fold pre

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

PLO 25 KK93ds looking to fold pre

CO: $39.01
BN: $72.10 (Hero)
SB: $25.21
BB: $18.51
Preflop ($0.35) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 K 3 K
CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.60, SB folds, BB raises to $8.65, CO folds, Hero calls $6.05
Flop ($18.40) K Q 4 (2 Players)
BB bets $9.86, and is all in, Hero calls $9.86
Turn ($38.12) K Q 4 4 (2 Players)
River ($38.12) K Q 4 4 8 (2 Players)
Final Pot
BB has 9 A A T Hero has 9 K 3 K Hero wins $36.87

Vilian, in question is 23/9/0 over 140 hands.  Not tilted, and playing his usual style.

There is no doubt in my mind he has good to premium Aces.  With only 10$ behind is this a fold preflop? I don't know exactly how to figure out the math on this. 

5 Comments

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Tom Coldwell 11 years, 11 months ago

Yeah, even though we're double suited this is a fold preflop once 4-bet.

As for how to do the math, I released a vid on that exact topic just over a week ago: Calling 4-Bets


lofigr 11 years, 11 months ago
I haven't watched the entire vid - I'll do it today probably - it might be very usefull.
I think I started to watch it and saw u were showing why pot = 201,5 ( in fact pot = 2 * $100 stacks + SB + BB), but then I got to go out... ;)
lofigr 11 years, 11 months ago
I would have folded because of several things (without doing any maths in this case):

- we play vs AA
- we put in the pot $8,65 to win BB's remaining $9,86, and knowing we play vs AA, we will lose almost always and we will desperately do many wrong calls on dry/paired boards
- I would have called it ONLY if I was super deep and my opponent was pretty deep, in all other cases I fold
- don't wanna play any 4-bet hand that induced short stacker no matter I play IP or OOP
Osterror 11 years, 11 months ago

I just wanna say that we don't "know" he "always" has aces. Two very bad words: know and always. 140 hands is not enough at all to conclude that. I see nits every day shipping with something else for various reasons, even though their stats showed otherwise. He might decide you play too laggy now and punish you with broadways. He might be ending his session and is willing to gamble a bit. He maybe angry at himself playing too nitty and now gets brave. His wife may have shouted at him and he gets you guys for revenge. And the most simple reason: in 140 hands he may not have been dealt a single premium hand!!! 

This is not relevant here given the stack sizes are still too big for it to matter. But at some point we get close to the equity where the KKds has close enough odds to get it in when you add in the fact that you cannot see his cards and with varying weight he might have something else.

We have 32.82% vs AA** here now, and would need his stack to be roughly 8.50 dollars to break even here, so if he was all in preflop we could call and break even if we indeed "know" he has aces. Make his starting stack 50bb's and i believe you can get it in getting 38% pot odds but putting some weight to non-aces, though.






lofigr 11 years, 11 months ago
I notice OP stated he thought he was playing pre vs Aces, so why did he call?
I pretty much believe in judgements of players playing at the table - when you play someone for such period of time, your reads can be very very good, sharp and precise... OP also stated opponent was not on tilt - extra argument he does not 4-bet 7654ds type hand.
I am gambler and poker is gambling game, but I just think I would fold pre this hand although I sometimes don't care what opponent holds when I have Kings, but many times I lost hand in similar spot , particularly when I was playing vs short stacker that 4-bet my Kings....

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