PLO 20 turn x/r AI in SRP
Posted by oboltys88
Posted by
oboltys88
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO 20 turn x/r AI in SRP
UTG: $85.42 (Hero)
HJ: $19.75
CO: $22.90
BN: $20.49
SB: $20
BB: $18.50
HJ: $19.75
CO: $22.90
BN: $20.49
SB: $20
BB: $18.50
Preflop
($0.30)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
7
9
8
Hero raises to $0.70, HJ calls $0.70, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Hero raises to $0.70, HJ calls $0.70, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
I have HJ playing 69/32 w/ 15% 3bet decently aggressive 2.4 w/ flop raise CB total 24%. I think in this position his 3bet is around 8% so his range is somewhat like:
46%-$3B8
46%-$3B8
Flop
($1.70)
4
9
7
(2 Players)
Hero bets $1.19,
HJ calls $1.19
Here i think he peals pretty light including any pair+BFD or backdoor wrap+BFD. I think he's raising any nut flushdraw+gutter or better, any top 2 pair or better so his calling range:
(OE>, FD, PR>+BFD)-(NFD+GD>, T2P>, WR+FD)
(OE>, FD, PR>+BFD)-(NFD+GD>, T2P>, WR+FD)
Turn
($4.08)
3
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
HJ bets $2.85,
Hero raises to $12.63,
HJ calls $9.78
I think he bets something like this:
NFD, PFD+TFD, FD+OE>, 2PR+OE>, ST
which makes up 50% of his range.
I think he continues v a c/r with:
NFD+GD>, PFD+TFD, 2PR+FD+OE>, ST
which is around 65% of his betting range. our equity when called is around 42%. assuming we're all-in for simplicity our ev:
0.35*($7)+0.65*0.42*($37)+0.65*0.58(-$18) = $2.45+$10-$6.8 = $5.65 = 28bb
Looks ok?
NFD, PFD+TFD, FD+OE>, 2PR+OE>, ST
which makes up 50% of his range.
I think he continues v a c/r with:
NFD+GD>, PFD+TFD, 2PR+FD+OE>, ST
which is around 65% of his betting range. our equity when called is around 42%. assuming we're all-in for simplicity our ev:
0.35*($7)+0.65*0.42*($37)+0.65*0.58(-$18) = $2.45+$10-$6.8 = $5.65 = 28bb
Looks ok?
River
($29.34)
4
(2 Players)
Hero bets $20.53,
HJ calls $5.23
Loading 2 Comments...
Your flopbet is very much on the small side in my opinion. Even if your hand is very strong I'd still go for 1.40-1.55 here. Actually this flop isn't to good for your UTG range so I'd strong consider x/raising or x/calling OTF (mostly x/raising tho since we nailed the board).
You don't really give info about your villains in all your hands (stats, reads) so it's tough to say much about your lines. If villain is aggro I like the turn x/shove (as played, overall I prefer flop x/r) b/c once you check here you'll get a lot of stabs from 986 type of hands from many villains.
With the SPR you can't do anything but shoving river. You're not gonna fold and villain is not gonna valueshove worse of bluff for 1/6th of the pot. Just shove and hope to get called by something random.
The line looks fine to me, seems like a good board for villain to flaot and we can protect our equity, get the worse river card but with 1/5 of a PSB I am just sticking it in and than being sad about losing out on the EV dollars.
I did notice a problem with your calculations though
0.35*($7)+0.65*0.42*($37)+0.65*0.58(-$18)
The gain from showdown should be expressed as that and not include our stack into the equation. So the gain would be pot+remaining stack ($7+$18=$25)
so this will decrease the value of the shove to ~+$2.5
Intuitively this seems correct since we need about 45% equity on the flop to breakeven with no fold equity. This is why it's very common to shove in these spots where we figure to have about 40% equity against a wide range since we can steal the villains equity with our presumed fold equity.
Also as Suniram said, bet bigger on the flop, wet semi connected boards like this I like to typical bet 70-80% of the pot.
Be the first to add a comment