PLO 100 - Trips TK facing a pot sized raise.
Posted by Scudmissil
Posted by
Scudmissil
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO 100 - Trips TK facing a pot sized raise.
UTG: $153.54
HJ: $125.58 (Hero)
CO: $262.98
BN: $171.37
SB: $144.74
BB: $100
HJ: $125.58 (Hero)
CO: $262.98
BN: $171.37
SB: $144.74
BB: $100
I haven't played much with button but on a small sample he's been raising flops frequently. Haven't seen anything out of line but was mutlitabling and not really paying attention.
He was playing 25/16 5% 3bet, 3.9 AF, 45% flop agg freq. over 200ish hands.
He was playing 25/16 5% 3bet, 3.9 AF, 45% flop agg freq. over 200ish hands.
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
7
T
K
A
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, CO calls $3, BN calls $3, SB folds, BB calls $2
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, CO calls $3, BN calls $3, SB folds, BB calls $2
Flop
($15.50)
A
2
A
(5 Players)
BB checks,
UTG checks,
Hero bets $10,
CO folds,
BN raises to $45.50
Loading 6 Comments...
We need 44.97 % to stack off (note that he cant have 22 often enough to begine with)
against a range of (AQxx , Acc , A2xx , 22xx , A34x) - I put AQxx since I think we have to be ahead some of the time -
AsKhTh7s 46.83%
AQxx , Acc , A2xx , 22xx , A34x 53.17%
AsKhTh7s 41.73%
Acc , A2xx , 22xx , A34x 58.27%
AsKhTh7s 38.48%
A2xx , 22xx 61.52%
I dont know I think I cant fold but seems close !
1) You have included stuff like A34x which I think is rather unlikely.
2) You haven't weighted the ranges to only include the hands he'll play (22xx is fine and all, but he isn't playing 2229 which will be included in this etc.).
I've run some sims where I've taken the same raising hands as you have but assumed villain can only have the top 25% of hands (his VPIP. Obv he has some 3-betting range, but w/ 2 aces on the board and one in our hand, the majority of it is probably blocked anyways).
Versus the large range where you expected 46.83%, we actually become a significant favourite and jump to 55.72% (probably because there are now a ton of AQxx hands relative to everything else). Even if we sub out A34x for AKxx (a hand I'm surprised you ignored), we maintain an advantage at 54.51%. This is because the majority of his hands are trips and versus trips we do very well.
Switching to the tighter flush draws and houses range, we go from 41.73% to 44.95%, again because the hands we beat are more frequent than in your simulations.
However, versus the tight, houses only range, we do terribly. Instead of 38,48%, we drop to a disappointing 33.06% because 22xx is so infrequent a holding for villain.
Finally, I'm gonna plug in a range which I think might be a better representation of a range here - AKxx, A2xx, 22xx and AQcxcx. I'm basically assuming trips top kicker, all houses and trips w/ three overs and a big flush draw is a reasonable raising range for him. (The final range I plugged looked like this - (a2**, 22**, AK**, AQc*c*$np):25% - meaning I also assumed his AQ and AK hands don't have a pair in them). In this, we get 44.76% (rising to 45.90 if we allow paired AKxx hands). That is pretty much bang on the EV we need to stack off so I guess jamming is ok, especially if we factor in the chance that he has to have SOME folds here (although they may be very, VERY few. Alternatively, he may be on a bluff w/ 3456cc thinking it's tough to be dead as A2 isn't really in our range much and call it off behind). I'd be interested to see what others think because I feel there's a chance I'm overestimating how wide he's raising here, but I think we might just have to stack off (I really wish we were only 100bbs deep). I know there are certainly some villains against whom jamming would be awful 'cas they have the houses only range so we are 33%.
Note: There are so few wrap + club hands in the 25% range that it really doesn't alter our equity all in very substantially at all (also, he has over 40% w/ them so that kinda sucks unless he raise/folds them).
On the button with a "safe" hand that has some substantial equity against even full houses, that we have to assume are not that often. I think its not a mistake to raise the range you plug in
(maybe we should increase his VPIP in your calcs since he is OTB and in a multiway pot pre already - I admit I am not that experienced with ProPokerTools thanks for the help)
The overcalling puts a lot more 2's in his range, I think. Even 22, and especially A2. It's wider than that, obv, but his flop action narrows it to exactly that. It just doesn't seem like a 25/16 w/ 5% 3bet (all numbers weighted heavily to value) is going to start bluff raising a flop like this.
If I'm BTN here, I have A2xx ns in my preflop range, especially if we can expect action (eg fish in blinds, or fish involved before us).
Effective stacks $123 OTF with $16 pot. We have $113 left when Villain raises. We risk $113 to win $16 + $10 + $123 = $149.
Risk : reward = 149 : 113, and we need 113/(149 + 113) = 43% to have +EV when the rest of the stack goes in.
Slightly better for us than the percentage in the first reply.
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